Muslim vote still up for grabs, could tilt results in battleground states

A new survey shows that Muslim voter preferences are diverse, which could mean their vote is still up for grabs.

Muslim voters vary depending on their gender, age, race, party affiliation and location when it comes to picking a presidential candidate, according to a recent survey by the Council of American Islamic Relations.

The survey found that 29.4% of American Muslims are leaning toward Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, while 29.1% lean toward Jill Stein of the Green Party and 11.2% lean toward Republican nominee Donald Trump. Some 16.5% are undecided.

However, Ms. Stein leads Ms. Harris in three battleground states — Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin. Ms. Harris leads Ms. Stein in Georgia and Pennsylvania, and Mr. Trump leads both women in Nevada.

The Muslim vote is particularly important in Michigan, but a small shift in voters could tip the election in any of the swing states.

CAIR noted that there are an estimated 2.5 million Muslim voters, with a “significant presence” in key swing states.

“These new survey findings make it clear that American Muslim voters have the potential to determine the outcomes in several key battleground states and that they are still up for grabs in the 2024 election,” CAIR Government Affairs Director Robert S. McCaw said.

He said that overlooking Muslim voters and their issues “could be a costly mistake” for any of the candidates.

Ms. Harris sees the most support from Muslim men with 29%, while 34% of women lean toward Ms. Stein. Mr. Trump sees a lower level of support from both men, 14%, and women, 10%.

The vice president sees the most support from Black Muslim voters, with roughly 55% saying they support her. More White, Arab and Turkish Muslims favor Ms. Stein (32.7%) or Mr. Trump (12.8%).

Some 33% of Democrats and 30% of independents say they support Ms. Harris. However, Ms. Stein follows closely behind with 32% of Democrats and 28% of independents.

Mr. Trump’s top supporters are Republicans, with nearly half, 48%, saying they’re voting for him.

The survey was conducted through text to 40,000 registered Muslim voters in all 50 states, Puerto Rico and military members serving overseas. It was conducted from Aug. 25-27 with 1,478 responses, 1,155 of which were verified and matched to the national voter file.