Sen. Jon Tester’s reelection hopes in Montana have dimmed, according to a nonpartisan election tracker that says Republicans are clear favorites to flip the Senate.
In the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics latest update, Kyle Kondik has moved Mr. Tester’s race against GOP businessman Tim Sheehy from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Republican.”
The ratings switch followed the release of an AARP survey that found Mr. Sheehy leading Mr. Tester by a 51% to 45% margin, and 49% to 41% when the poll includes third-party contenders.
“Beyond the polling, history and recent trends are just not on Tester’s side,” Mr. Kondik said. “He is one of a relatively small number of partisan outliers in either chamber of Congress, holding a Senate seat that the other party won by 16 points in the most recent presidential election.”
“Many of Tester’s red-state Democratic colleagues have lost or retired in recent years, and it is a credit to his abilities that he has won three Senate elections in a state that is otherwise clearly Republican,” he said.
Mr. Kondik said if Mr. Tester loses, Democrats will have no chance of defending their slim Senate majority unless they put a Republican-held seat into play — which does not appear likely.
Democrats, however, still have a shot in Montana, and they remain grateful that Ms. Tester decided to run for a third term in the ruby-red state, which former President Donald Trump has dominated in back-to-back presidential elections.
Mr. Tester has been promoting his bipartisan appeal, including in a recent advertisement featuring self-described Republicans backing his bid.
• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.
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