Poll: Sheehy solidly ahead of Tester in race for power in the Senate

Republican Senate candidate Tim Sheehy gained a strong edge against Sen. Jon Tester in a race that the GOP and Democrats believe will determine who controls the upper chamber.

In a new poll from AARP released Thursday, Mr. Sheehy led Mr. Tester 49% to 41% in a contest with third-party candidates. With West Virginia likely a lock for Republicans to flip, and other contested Senate races still tight but favoring Democratic incumbents, Mr. Sheehy’s advantage is a good sign for Republicans in their bid to take over the Senate.

When third-party candidates are removed from the ballot, Mr. Sheehy’s lead grew to 51%-45%, with 3% of voters undecided.

The Republicans also look solid on the presidential front, with Donald Trump ahead by 15 points against Vice President Kamala Harris in the latest poll, and his presence on the ballot is likely giving Mr. Sheehy a boost. The former president visited Montana in August to stump for Mr. Sheehy, an event that Sen. Steve Daines, who hand-picked Mr. Sheehy, dubbed as a “retirement party” for Mr. Tester.

“This is bad news for Jon Tester because Montanans aren’t buying his fake moderate shtick anymore,” said National Republican Senatorial Committee spokeswoman Maggie Abboud. “Tester is a liberal who votes with Joe Biden and Kamala Harris 95% of the time.”

Mr. Tester, who won three tight races, is trying to sway independents and moderate Republican voters to support him through campaign initiatives like “Republicans for Tester.”

“Jon Tester is no stranger to tough races, and he’s won three in a row because he has a strong coalition of support across the state, including independent voters and Republicans,” said Tester campaign spokeswoman Monica Robinson. “For the next 60 days Sheehy will have to keep answering questions about his agenda that hurts Montanans and how he misrepresented nearly everything about himself: from his military record, to his business credentials, to where he grew up.”

The three-term incumbent does pull 7% of Republican voters away from Mr. Sheehy and has more support from independents, 43%, than his opponent, 40%. He also had a 7-point advantage with voters ages 18 to 49.

But Mr. Sheehy dominates Mr. Tester in the older demographics, leading with voters over age 50 by over 16 points.

The poll was conducted with the help of the Republican-leaning Fabrizio Ward and the Democratic-leaning David Binder Research from Aug. 25-29, interviewing 1,064 voters across the state.