Risk of wider war grows in Mideast after Hezbollah chief Nasrallah killed in Israeli airstrike

A version of this story appeared in the daily Threat Status newsletter from The Washington Times. Click here to receive Threat Status delivered directly to your inbox each weekday.

Hassan Nasrallah, the longtime leader of the terrorist group Hezbollah, was killed by an Israeli airstrike Friday in Beirut in a major blow to the Lebanon-based organization and its chief patron, Iran.

Both Hezbollah and the Israeli Defense Forces on Saturday confirmed the death, which comes amid fears that a full-scale ground war between the two sides is imminent.

An official statement from Hezbollah said that Mr. Nasrallah, 64, “has joined his fellow martyrs.” Lebanese officials said at least six people were killed and 91 injured in the attack.

In its statement, Hezbollah also vowed to “continue the holy war against the enemy and in support of Palestine.”

Separately, the IDF confirmed the Hezbollah leader died.

“Hassan Nasrallah will no longer be able to terrorize the world,” the IDF said in a social media post Saturday.

Mr. Nasrallah is the most powerful figure killed by Israel in its war against Hamas, Hezbollah and other arms of Iran’s so-called axis of resistance, which also includes the Yemen-based Houthi rebels and Shiite militias operating in Iraq and Syria.

Iran also seemed to confirm the death. In a televised message Saturday, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called on “all regional resistance forces … to stand by and support Hezbollah.” 

For the U.S., the death of Mr. Nasrallah further fuels fears that escalation in the Middle East is inevitable or has arrived. President Biden in a statement Saturday cast the Israeli strike that killed Mr. Nasrallah as a just act, but he once again pleaded for all sides to avoid further conflict and embrace cease-fire proposals.

“Hassan Nasrallah and the terrorist group he led, Hezbollah, were responsible for killing hundreds of Americans over a four-decade reign of terror,” Mr. Biden said. “His death from an Israeli airstrike is a measure of justice for his many victims, including thousands of Americans, Israelis and Lebanese civilians.”

He added, “Ultimately, our aim is to de-escalate the ongoing conflicts in both Gaza and Lebanon through diplomatic means. In Gaza, we have been pursuing a deal backed by the U.N. Security Council for a cease-fire and the release of hostages. In Lebanon, we have been negotiating a deal that would return people safely to their homes in Israel and southern Lebanon. It is time for these deals to close, for the threats to Israel to be removed and for the broader Middle East region to gain greater stability.”

Israeli military officials said they tracked Mr. Nasrallah’s movements for years. The killing is a major success for the Israeli military and intelligence services, coming on the heels of high-profile operations the past several months. 

Israel has targeted all of Iran’s proxy groups across the Middle East since Oct. 7, when Hamas launched its raid against Israel that killed more than 1,200 Israelis and took 250 hostages, roughly 100 of whom are reportedly in the Gaza Strip. 

In July, Israel is believed to have conducted a strike in Tehran that killed Hamas political leader Ismail Hanieyh. 

Two weeks ago, Israel conducted an operation targeting hundreds of Hezbollah fighters by detonating explosives hidden inside pagers and walkie-talkies. That operation dealt a serious blow to the group in a physical sense and had a significant psychological effect by demonstrating the reach of the Israeli military and intelligence services. 

Israel has been battling Hamas for nearly a year, but analysts have warned that an Israel-Hezbollah war could be far deadlier. The terrorist group claims it has as many as 100,000 well-trained fighters, though most analysts believe the true number to be 20,000, with thousands more reservists. The group also has considerably more rockets and other weapons than Hamas, making it more capable as a legitimate fighting force than any other Iranian proxy group in the region.

Over the past few weeks, the two sides have traded strikes and inched closer to all-out war. Hezbollah has targeted cities across Israel, including Tel Aviv, with rocket attacks, while the IDF has responded with an air campaign in southern Lebanon.

Late Friday, hours after the strike that killed Mr. Nasrallah, the IDF said its campaign against Hezbollah will continue. It warned residents in Beirut neighborhoods, where Hezbollah has embedded its operations, that more strikes are coming.

“The IDF calls on the residents of neighborhoods in the Dahieh of Beirut to move away from Hezbollah assets and facilities,” the Israeli military posted on X. “We will continue operating to precisely dismantle Hezbollah’s offensive capabilities. Hezbollah has strategically embedded weapons in civilian areas, putting Lebanese civilians at risk in order to harm Israeli civilians. Our war is with Hezbollah, not the people of Lebanon.”

A key question is how Iran will respond to the death of Mr. Nasrallah. In April, Iran launched a major drone and missile attack against Israel after the IDF killed Iranian military officials visiting Syria. Nearly all of those drones and missiles were shot down by Israeli and U.S. air defenses.

The U.S. feared that Iran may again attack Israel after the death of Haniyeh in July. But so far Iran has not attacked Israel directly, and some analysts believe it’s likely to stay that way.

“It’s clear that Iran has little interest in escalating tensions with Israel and its allies right now,” former Israeli intelligence official Avi Melamed said in comments circulated to reporters Saturday. “Instead, it may allow its weakened deterrence strategy to fade while prioritizing self-preservation. In the coming days, Iran is likely to rely on its remaining proxies to respond to Israeli actions, a strategy that Israel and its allies will continue to counter.”

For the U.S., the death of Mr. Nasrallah further fuels fears that escalation in the Middle East is inevitable, or has already arrived. Earlier this week, President Biden pleaded with both sides to step back from the brink of all-out war that could devastate Lebanon and northern Israel.

“Full-scale war is not in anyone’s interest,” the president said during a speech to the United Nations General Assembly in New York City. “Even as the situation has escalated, a diplomatic solution is still possible. In fact, it remains the only path to lasting security to allow the residents from both countries to allow residents from both countries to return to their homes on the border safely.”