Taiwanese military report says China lacks full invasion force

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An annual military report produced by the Taiwanese Defense Ministry concludes that the Chinese military has improved capabilities for conducting offensive landing operations on the island, but the People’s Liberation Army still lacks sufficient forces to invade, according to a copy of the report obtained by Japan’s Yomiuri newspaper.

The ministry report was submitted to the Taiwan legislature in August and described Chinese military combat drills in May targeting Taiwan shortly after President Lai Ching-te took office. According to the report, China’s drills sought to promote division and confrontation in Taiwan and affect the morale of the military and the public. The May exercises also used the Chinese coast guard for patrols and inspections of vessels in waters east of Taiwan for the first time, said to be tests of a potential blockade during a military assault on Taiwan.

China has stepped up deployments of new types of anti-ship ballistic missiles and ultra-high-speed hypersonic missiles, which will provide opportunities for strikes against foreign military forces in the seas between the Chinese coast and what Beijing calls the “second island chain” — islands stretching from Japan to Guam, the report said.

The report also disclosed that the Chinese coast guard is being bolstered with new weapons and the addition of small warships from the Chinese navy.

But despite China’s overall buildup, the report concludes that China’s current capabilities are not sufficient to move large amounts of forces across the 100-mile Taiwan Strait that would be needed in a military strike. The lack of amphibious forces and supply capabilities for cross-strait warfare means the Chinese military is “not fully prepared to conduct a full-scale invasion on Taiwan,” the report said.

A military source said one of the lessons China has learned from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is that an assault on Taiwan will be much more difficult than originally anticipated.