Close U.S. ally Japan hosts crowded fight for new prime minister

SEOUL, South Korea – Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party will choose a new leader Friday in a scramble prompted in August when current Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced that he would not seek another term.

Though the LDP is facing significant public image issues, a record nine candidates are vying to fill Mr. Kishida’s shoes. The winner will automatically become prime minister of Japan, the world’s No. 4 economy and an important U.S. ally that hosts the largest contingent of GIs stationed overseas.

The conservative LDP, with its minority coalition partner Komeito, a Buddhist party, control the Diet’s upper and lower houses. Friday’s race is not a national one. Party members — both sitting lawmakers and dues-paying members — will vote to choose the new LDP head.

In what is seen as a likely scenario, a runoff will take place the same day between the top two candidates if no one secures an outright majority.

Barring extraordinary circumstances, the party head chosen tomorrow will lead the LDP into Japan’s next general election. That could take place as late as October 2025, but it is widely expected that the new leader will call it earlier — possibly even in the next few weeks.

Security challenges from China and North Korea give the incoming prime minister limited space to diverge from Tokyo’s tight security alliance with Washington. However, the next leader needs to firmly grasp power to prevent Japan from returning to its damaging political cycle of “revolving-door” leaders. The next prime minister must also confront the country’s long-standing challenges: demographic decline, a falling place in global economic rankings and massive debt.  

Mr. Kishida’s August statement that he would not compete in the party’s leadership race was not a shock to many. His low public approval ratings had prompted widespread gossip that he would be compelled to step aside and LDP losses in local elections this year proved a final nail in his coffin.

The low-profile Mr. Kishida, who took office in October 2021, nevertheless left a mark on Japan’s international position. He oversaw the controversial release of treated wastewater from the earthquake-struck Dai Ichi Fukushima nuclear plant into the Pacific, without environmental hitches, was an outspoken critic of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine and responded to moves initiated South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol to upgrade long-troubled bilateral ties between the two critical U.S. allies in the region.

His pledge to almost double defense spend by 2027 accelerated Japan’s low-key, but decade-long rearmament.

But at home, he has suffered from inflation, corruption scandals and a plunging yen, while his party’s image has been hammered controversies, including charges of extensive links the conservative LDP and the anti-communist Unification Church. A foundation tied to the South Korea-based church owns the parent company of The Washington Times.

Leading the field of candidates Friday is ex-Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba, 67, though he is more popular with party rank-and-file than lawmakers. The security expert, fighting his fifth battle for the party’s headship, has suggested Asia should adopt a NATO-like multilateral alliance. Reformist Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, 43, is not only noted for good looks and for being the son of popular ex-Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, but he may be seen by conservatives as too young.

The third big hitter is Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi, 63, believed to be backed by power brokers on the party’s right. If she wins, she will be the first woman in Japan to be premier. However, some fear her traditional conservatism borders on old school nationalism, which will not play well in the region.

Japanese political follower Rin Nishimura, writing on X, anticipates the likeliest battles being between Mr. Ishiba and Ms. Takaichi — with moderates banding together to grant Ishiba victory — or Mr. Ishiba and Mr. Koizumi, with the latter coming out top given the former’s unpopularity among his Diet peers.

Still, six other candidates are also in play. Ms. Takaichi is not the only woman in the race: Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa seen by some as a safe, but unexciting, pair of hands is also running. Digital Minister Taro Kono is high profile, widely experienced and highly able, but some fear he is soft on China.

Mr. Kishida’s favorite is likely to be his Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, and two right-wingers in the race are lawmaker Takayuki Kobayashi and ex-Health Minister Katsunobu Kato. Speculation is they may undermine Ms. Taikaichi’s bid by splitting the party’s right-wing voting bloc. The field is rounded out by the LDP’s highly experienced secretary-general, Toshimitsu Motegi.

Correction: In a previous version of the story, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s August statement was characterized incorrectly. He said he would not compete in the party’s leadership race, which was not a shock to many.