To adapt a phrase from Democratic campaign strategist James Carville, perhaps it’s not just the economy, stupid.
Voters are more closely aligned with former President Donald Trump’s stances, but his brash and chaotic approach to politics has him trailing Vice President Kamala Harris in most national polling.
“If every person who said the economy and immigration was the No. 1 issue [backed him], Donald Trump would be running away with this race,” said Sean Spicer, a former spokesperson for the Trump administration and the Republican National Committee.
An NBC News national survey released over the weekend found that Mr. Trump has a 21-point lead on immigration, a 9-point lead on the economy, an 8-point lead on dealing with inflation and the cost of living, and a 6-point lead on crime.
Ms. Harris has a 5-point lead in competency, a 9-point lead on representing change, a 15-point lead on honesty and trustworthiness, a 16-point lead on temperament, and a 20-point lead on mental and physical health.
The findings mirrored the split found in battleground states.
SEE ALSO: Trump says corporate tax cuts, threat of tariffs will spark economic renaissance
“There is still some degree of, like, a high school class election that’s still at play,” Mr. Spicer said. “You know, who do people like? Who do they want to have a beer with?”
When President Biden was his opponent, Mr. Trump held a small but persistent lead in polls as voters worried about Mr. Biden’s age and mental acuity.
By replacing Mr. Biden with Ms. Harris, Democrats made the election no longer a referendum on the sitting president despite her role as vice president. Ms. Harris has taken the lead in national polls by relying on a careful strategy.
She has largely escaped the scrutiny of her policy stances by avoiding the press, dodging firm answers and holding choreographed campaign events.
Mr. Trump has filled the media void with his rollicking campaign events, often turning the election conversation into a question of “What did he say now?”
Even as he delivers policy pronouncements that appear popular, he muddies the waters with recriminations over past slights and pontification about tangential matters.
At campaign stops in Pennsylvania and Georgia this week, Mr. Trump said he would cut taxes, energy and electricity prices, seal the southern border, shutter the Department of Education, enact universal school choice and end the war in Ukraine and the chaos in the Middle East.
“Vote Trump. Your incomes will soar, your net worth will skyrocket, your energy cost and grocery prices will come tumbling down, and we will bring back the American dream bigger, better and stronger than ever before,” he said in Indiana, Pennsylvania.
He insisted he did not want to be rude after calling Ms. Harris “very dumb.”
He called her a “communist” and a “Marxist” and her father a “fascist.” He called Colorado Gov. Jared Polis a “real stiff,” California Gov. Gavin Newsom “Newscum” and Gen. Mark A. Milley, former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, “woke.”
He aired grievances about his loss in the 2020 election and about the need for Fox News to feature more pro-Trump commentators and fewer “professional scammers.” He spent several minutes criticizing late-night talk show hosts, particularly Jimmy Kimmel.
In the first and likely only presidential debate, the biggest headline for Mr. Trump was his dubious claim that Haitian migrants were abducting and eating cats and dogs in Ohio.
Mr. Trump faced similar headwinds in his previous campaigns. In 2016, voters’ distaste for Hillary Clinton helped carry him to the White House. After four years in office, voters seemed tired of his rhetoric and elected Mr. Biden.
Now, as the campaign approaches its conclusion, Ms. Harris may find it easier to recalibrate her public stances to match the electorate.
For Mr. Trump, he has yet to recalibrate his persona despite many pleadings within the Republican Party.
“It’s like if a door-to-door salesman (if they still exist) came to your house with a product you really liked but also kept acting like he might steal your lawn mower,” said Tucker Martin, a Republican operative who served with former Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell. “You probably pass.”
He said voters are looking for the right policies put forward by someone they trust.
“But, hey, it’s a binary choice, really, so maybe that’s not an option this time around,” Mr. Martin said.
• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.
Please read our comment policy before commenting.