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Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump in national polling as the candidate likeliest to pursue a foreign policy that “benefits people like you,” is less likely to send U.S. troops to an “unnecessary war” and would improve America’s international standing. However, polls in the swing states show that her GOP rival has the edge on each question.
The Institute for Global Affairs recently asked 1,835 Americans for their perspective on key foreign policy issues. The think tank also included samples from three critical Rust Belt states — Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan — and three Sun Belt states — Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.
Mr. Trump comes out on top nationally when Americans are asked to pick a candidate likelier to reform immigration, end the wars in Gaza and Ukraine and to “respond effectively” to a Chinese attack on Taiwan. His margin of favorability in swing states is even greater, the IGA said in its report.
“People in Rust Belt states care more about the rise of China and less about climate change than Americans nationwide,” the IGA said. “Those in Sun Belt states care more than the nationwide population about immigration. These views could bode well for Trump’s candidacy.”
Republicans and independent voters point to immigration as one of the top foreign policy failures of the Biden administration, while Democrats cite the U.S. response to the war in Gaza. The poll said 30% of Americans cite the bloody withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 as one the biggest foreign policy failures of the Biden administration. More than 60% believe the Afghan war was either a failed mission from the start or should have ended when Osama bin Laden was killed in 2011.
Foreign policy concerns don’t traditionally register as a top priority for American voters, who tend to place more emphasis on domestic issues like crime and the economy. However, the IGA says foreign policy is “having a moment” for the upcoming presidential election as the world reckons with the aftermath of the COVID pandemic, wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, and greater international competition from expansionist countries like China.
“Though the economy remains a top voter issue, about twice as many Americans cited foreign policy as a top priority and about four times as many expressed concern about U.S. involvement overseas this time as last year,” the IGA said.
The IGA pollsters said most Harris supporters are Wilsonian, advocating for a rules-based order focused on human rights, liberal economics and democracy. Supporters of Mr. Trump could be labeled as Jacksonians who support a strong military to deter enemies while avoiding global ties.
The pollsters noted that backers of Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump differ from most of their own parties on key foreign policy issues. They said Trump supporters are less hawkish on China than the average Republican while Harris supporters are more hawkish than the average Democrat.
Backers of the vice president are 18% likelier to approve military force to defend Taiwan from China than supporters of Mr. Trump.
Republicans and independent voters are about 20% likelier than Democrats to prioritize avoiding a wider war in Ukraine. The poll said 76% of Democrats but only 55% of Republicans would support a U.S. military operation to expel Russian forces from new NATO ally Finland in the event it was invaded.
The gulf between Republican and Democratic voters appears most pronounced when it comes to Israel’s war against Hamas terrorists. Most Democrats and independent voters — 67% and 55% — believe the U.S. should either end U.S. support for Israel’s war effort or make it conditional on a cease-fire. The IGA poll said only 8% of Democrats but 42% of Republicans think the U.S. must support Israel unconditionally.
The IGA poll also noted how younger and older generations disagree over U.S. foreign policy regarding Israel’s war in Gaza and a new Cold War with China. Voters under 30 were twice as likely to think the U.S. should stop supporting Israel’s war in Gaza as those 65 and older — 23% to 11% — while twice as many adults 65 and older say the U.S. should unconditionally support Israel’s fight — 26% to 13%.
The framing by the Biden-Harris administration of foreign policy as a global struggle between democracy and autocracy may not resonate with most Americans, according to the poll.
While four times as many Democrats as Republicans cite threats to democracy crucial, it’s at the top of a list of 12 foreign policy issues that Americans care about the least, according to the IGA poll.
• Mike Glenn can be reached at mglenn@washingtontimes.com.
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