Daniels, Commanders buck passing woes plaguing NFL offenses

NFL quarterbacks overall are struggling this season, but Monday night’s games featured three signal-callers who are bucking the trend — including, amazingly, the Washington Commanders’ unexpectedly poised rookie, Jayden Daniels.

Daniels, the Buffalo Bills’ Josh Allen and the Cincinnati Bengals’ Joe Burrow each lit up the scoreboard (and the stat sheet) this week. But even with those three standout performances, aerial attacks are approaching 20-year lows around the typically pass-happy league.

Through three weeks, passing statistics are anemic. 

Teams are averaging just 201 passing yards per game, the fewest since 2003. 

Sagging passing attacks have dragged overall scoring down as well: The average points per game are at a 17-year low.

Coaches regularly joke that the NFL stands for “not for long,” and play-callers around the league have brushed off early concerns about the offensive decline. But in NFL meeting rooms around the country, coaches and analysts are pouring over film and data, hoping to diagnose what’s ailing their offenses and what prescription could heal them.

Young QBs

It happens every year — a rookie quarterback makes his NFL debut, causing fans around the country to question their own place in the world. “Am I getting older, or are these players getting younger?”

This year, it’s both.

In Week 1, the average starting quarterback was just 27.6 years old, making this year’s crop of starters the youngest in more than 60 years, according to the Athletic’s Mike Sando.

Most of these fresh-faced signal-callers, including three rookies tasting their first NFL action, are struggling to adapt to the speed of the NFL game. Some coaches, including Commanders defensive coordinator Joe Whitt Jr., pointed to the shifting college football landscape as a potential reason for the unprepared passers.

“When I first got in the league, you had quarterbacks that grew up in systems, and there was traditional learning, where to send the ball and how to send it,” he said. “Now everything goes so fast in college, so when they get up here, it takes them a little bit of time to learn where to send the ball into progressions.”

Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young has had a particularly difficult time learning where to send the ball. The top pick in the 2023 NFL draft tossed three interceptions through his two games, causing Carolina’s coaches to bench him for journeyman Andy Dalton.

Where Young struggled, Dalton thrived. The 36-year-old made the Panthers offense look like a well-oiled machine as he became the first quarterback to post 300 yards and three touchdowns in a game this season.

Dalton kept the offense in rhythm, firing the ball to receivers after just 2.17 seconds, the quickest mark in the league.

While veterans can often spot holes in coverage quickly, young quarterbacks can hold on to the ball too long, leading to costly sacks. Second-year passer Will Levis and rookie Caleb Williams lead the league in yards lost from sacks through three weeks, often taking big losses that derail drives.

Levis and Williams are just one part of a larger trend — defenses are getting to quarterbacks more often. Across the NFL, defenses are sacking passers on 8% of dropbacks, which would be the highest rate since 2000 if it continues.

Two-high looks

Some pundits are pointing to two-high coverage — where defenses keep two players deep downfield to prevent long passes — as a culprit for the offensive struggles. ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. even called for the NFL to ban the scheme last week.

“Checkdown kings. Bubble screen sensations. Boring football. Uh-uh. Game manager, I get it. I want to see those deep shots. That’s what the NFL was built on,” Kiper said on ESPN’s “Get Up.” “The NFL is being ruined by these two high safeties.”

But Cover 2 looks aren’t the most popular coverage in the NFL — that distinction belongs to the single-high Cover 3 design, where a trio of defensive backs drop into deep zones.

Instead, the big change this season has centered around disguised coverages. Defenses are fooling offenses by showing one look before the snap before rotating out of it as the play begins. This leaves quarterbacks, especially those without much NFL experience, second-guessing where to go with the football

According to the analysts at MatchQuarters, teams disguised their coverages on 25% of dropbacks in 2023. That rate has ticked up to 30% this season.

Regardless of the zone scheme, defenses are playing soft coverage around the league to take away the deep ball.

“That’s kind of the push,” Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury said. “Keep it in front; let the offense make a mistake and shorten the game.”

But some offenses, like Kingsbury’s, have found success by taking what the defense gives them. 

Daniels has outperformed his rookie counterparts by delivering short passes quickly and in rhythm. According to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, the 2023 Heisman Trophy winner has produced the sixth-shortest average depth of target and the fourth-fastest time to throw.

But two weeks of dinking and dunking paid off, as Daniels found wide receiver Terry McLaurin for a pair of deep shots on Monday, including a 27-yard touchdown to seal the victory. Washington’s signal-caller ended the game with a rookie-record 91% completion percentage.