OPINION:
My wife, Donna, had planned to accompany me to Montana a few weeks ago. Instead, she decided to stay home to knock on doors and do whatever else she could to help former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan win his Senate race.
Donna disagreed with some of Mr. Hogan’s decisions as governor, and especially with his vocal criticism of former President Donald Trump.
“There is too much at stake this year to let a few differences stand in the way of campaigning for Hogan or detract from just how important a Hogan victory could be for the country,” she said, and “it helps that he’s a nice guy.”
I couldn’t argue the point. Many Maryland conservatives and Mr. Trump himself never thought until he declared his Senate candidacy that they’d be rooting for or, like Donna, working to help Mr. Hogan. Before Mr. Hogan announced his bid, few analysts believed it possible that Maryland would elect a Republican. Democrats enjoy a better than 2-to-1 registration advantage, have huge majorities in the General Assembly and are far better organized than the state’s Republicans.
Mr. Hogan had been elected governor in 2014, like several past GOP governors, because his Democratic predecessor’s time in office was a disaster and the state’s voters wanted a change, even if it meant voting for a Republican.
Sensing this, Mr. Hogan stitched together a bipartisan coalition that gave him 51% of the vote that year. He focused on economic and tax issues rather than the hot-button social issues that divide Democrats and Republicans. Once elected, Mr. Hogan governed to keep that coalition together.
As governor, Mr. Hogan faced veto-proof Democratic majorities in both legislative houses. He managed to get some of his policy proposals adopted while fending off initiated by the progressive majority in the General Assembly that would have done grave damage to the state’s economy. He vetoed dozens of outrageous bills — for example, one that would allow abortions to be performed not just by doctors or nurses but the untrained as well. He remained popular with a heavily Democratic electorate that took to his pragmatic, problem-solving style.
Mr. Hogan remained focused on economic issues but supported school choice. He didn’t buckle under pressure from progressives to defund or disrespect law enforcement. A few weeks ago, he endorsed increased school security, including arming teachers.
That Mr. Hogan didn’t like Trump even in 2016 helped in a liberal state where Democrats are hostile to most Republicans. In the process, Mr. Hogan upset many Republicans, but his strategy worked well enough to win him a second four-year term in 2018.
Holding such a bipartisan coalition together in today’s polarized world will be no mean feat, but Mr. Hogan is betting that he can do it and that the same bipartisan coalition will elect him to the Senate.
Early betting was that Mr. Hogan’s popularity might force the Democrats to spend more money than originally contemplated to hold the seat but that their road to victory was secure. As he entered the race on Feb. 9, that betting seemed correct. Mr. Hogan trailed his Democratic opponent, Angela Alsobrooks, for months by 5, 6 and even 11 points.
Maryland has elected Democrats to the Senate for more than half a century. The environment that allowed Mr. Hogan to win the governorship does not apply. This year, the Senate electorate was expected to be far more polarized on ideological and partisan grounds and that, like him or not, Maryland Democrats would rally in support of Democrats across the board.
But recent polls show that hasn’t happened. The polls have him and Ms. Alsobrooks in a virtual tie. National Democrats are nervous enough to be channeling millions of dollars they hoped to spend elsewhere into Maryland to attack and redefine Mr. Hogan. So far, voters remembering his eight years as governor seem to resisting the onslaught of negative ads.
Many of the voters Democrats need to win back have voted for Mr. Hogan twice, have come to trust him and, like my wife, consider him a pretty nice guy to boot. Never Trumpers, and the state has many, know that Mr. Hogan will never rubber-stamp a potential President Trump but would be just as opposed to the extreme progressive policy preferences of Senate Democrats or Vice President Kamala Harris should she win in November.
It’s anybody’s guess how Mr. Hogan will vote on every bill as a senator. He would vote as a middle-of-the-road pragmatist, but those who know him trust him and are rallying behind him because, like Donna, they know that he could make all the difference.
• David Keene is editor-at-large at The Washington Times.
Please read our comment policy before commenting.