A new poll of Virginia voters shows Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are in a dead heat as early voting starts in the commonwealth.
According to a statewide survey released Friday from the Center for Leadership and Media Studies at the University of Mary Washington, Ms. Harris has the support of 47% of 756 likely Virginia voters, compared to 46% favoring Mr. Trump.
Four years ago, President Biden won Virginia by a 10-point margin over Mr. Trump.
“This new survey suggests Virginia should be getting a much closer look from both presidential campaigns,” said Stephen J. Farnsworth, professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington and director of UMW’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies. “Virginia may deserve to be treated as a ’swing state’ once again this year.”
Virginians who said they were political independents were split roughly evenly between Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris.
Research America Inc. conducted the survey between Sept. 3-9, prior to the candidates’ debate. The total sample included 1,000 Virginia residents, including 850 registered voters and 756 likely voters.
It included several third-party and independent candidates, who received a total of 4% support in the poll. The remaining likely voters said they were undecided.
When asked about their support between only the major party nominees, the results remained well within the margin of error, with 48% favoring Ms. Harris and 46% supporting Mr. Trump.
Among all survey respondents, Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump were tied at 44% each, with about 5% who said they were undecided and the remainder saying they support a third-party independent candidate or were not planning to vote.
Trump campaign spokesperson Jeff Ryner said while Virginia hasn’t gone Republican for the presidential ticket in 20 years, the latest poll shows “the Trump-Vance ticket is positioned to break this pattern.
“In September of 2021, the UMW poll was the first to correctly predict the outcome of the Republican gubernatorial victory — the UMW poll released today is a warning sign for Democrats — and is once again showing the tides have turned in favor of President Trump,” he said.
“With 46 days left, Team Trump is doubling down our efforts to reach voters and flip Virginia, for the first time since 2004,” he said.
The Washington Times reached out to the Harris campaign for comment.
In the poll, 20% of respondents said the economy and jobs were their top concern, while 19% said inflation, 19% said threats to democracy, 13% said immigration and 5% percent said abortion.
Republicans in the survey focused more on economic matters, while Democrats were more likely to be concerned about threats to democracy and abortion.
Mr. Farnsworth said Virginia’s 13 electoral votes are up for grabs and that neither campaign is paying enough attention to the commonwealth as a potential swing state during this cycle.
“Given the range of findings in Virginia surveys over the past two months, the Harris and Trump campaigns may be paying far too little attention to the commonwealth,” Mr. Farnsworth said. “Virginians have a history of bouncing back and forth between the parties.”
In 2021, Republican Glenn Youngkin was elected governor by a 51% to 49% margin.
Virginians in this new survey said they approved of Mr. Youngkin’s job performance by 46% to 34%. As for Mr. Biden’s job performance, 37% approved and 53% disapproved.
According to UMW pollsters, the survey showed a slim chance of partisan defections in the presidential race in Virginia, with roughly 90%of partisans backing their own party’s nominee.
The survey’s margin of error on the total sample is +/- 3.0%. The margin of error on the Likely Voters portion of the sample is +/- 3.5%.
• Kerry Picket can be reached at kpicket@washingtontimes.com.
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