A sliver of the electorate — the elusive undecided voter — is positioned to be the ultimate gatekeeper of the 2024 presidential election in America, which is starkly divided into pro-Trump and anti-Trump factions.
Comprising less than 10% of the electorate, this pocket of voters skews younger, male, White and working-class. Analysts say they are more independent, more moderate and less politically engaged than the broader electorate.
These late-breakers are pessimistic about the nation’s direction, concerned about pocketbook issues and hungry for change. They are weighing whether they would be better off with an unruly former president who has refused to accept his 2020 election loss or a shape-shifting vice president who cosigned policies many voters blame for their rising cost of living.
“We are spending an enormous amount of time and resources moving more people to our side and hardening their views against Kamala Harris,” James Blair, political director for the Trump campaign and the Republican National Committee, told The Washington Times. “The issue set favors Donald Trump, and the policies favor Donald Trump, and frankly, they always have. But we must communicate his policies clearly and directly to voters because we run against the biased media bullhorn that spends every day misrepresenting him and his positions.”
Mike Noble of the polling firm Noble Predictive Insights said undecided voters are a “bit of a hodgepodge” of competing political characteristics.
He said some blue-collar female voters are concerned about abortion rights championed by Democrats but lean Republican on pocketbook issues.
Some Black male voters have a more natural allegiance with the Democrats but feel they might be better off economically with Republicans.
“What really kind of makes up this undecided group is they are kind of a cross-pressured group,” Mr. Noble said.
He said they respond to “what affects them directly” and are not necessarily looking for Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris to discuss their respective policy plans in depth, but they do want to get a sense that the next president could improve their lives.
“I think it is more of the sound than the details,” he said.
Berwood Yost, director of the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College in Pennsylvania, said undecided voters tend to be dissatisfied with government, which “makes them typically less likely to vote, but more likely to vote against an incumbent party.”
That is a challenge for Ms. Harris in her quest to become the nation’s first female president.
While celebrating President Biden’s achievements, she distances herself from the boss with whom she has remained in lockstep since 2021.
Zeroing in on Mr. Trump’s polarizing personality, Ms. Harris casts the Republican as a narcissist and backward-looking agent of chaos. She says the nation needs a president “who cares about you and is not putting themselves first.”
“I intend to be a president for all Americans and focused on investing right now in you, the American people — and we can chart a new way forward,” she said in the Sept. 10 debate.
The Harris campaign did not respond to requests for comment.
Mr. Yost said some of these voters are traditional Republicans trying to decide whether to stomach four more years with Mr. Trump or gamble with Ms. Harris.
“If you are in the Trump faction, you are all in — that is clear — and the truth is progressives and centrist Democrats are pretty sure about their choices,” Mr. Yost said. “The group, I think, that is the most interesting group of the party factions are those traditional Republicans.”
Steve Mitchell, a Michigan-based Republican Party strategist and pollster, said undecided voters in the battleground state are far more aligned with Republicans on the issues but exhibit Trump fatigue.
“They are longtime, old-time Republicans, and they are sitting here going, ‘I don’t want to vote for Harris, but can I vote for Trump?’” Mr. Mitchell said. “Are they going not to vote, or are they going to go vote for Trump? If they do vote for Trump, they will do so while holding their nose.”
Mr. Trump’s rocky relationship with some of these voters is encapsulated by the rejection of some current and former Republican officials, including Sens. Susan M. Collins of Maine and Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, former Vice President Mike Pence, former White House Chief of Staff John Kelly and former Vice President Dick Cheney.
The Trump campaign described the anti-Trump Republican vote as “basically nonexistent.”
Meanwhile, these voters also are wary of Ms. Harris. They do not clearly understand where she stands on issues and fear she is too liberal.
Before the Sept. 10 presidential debate, a New York Times/Sienna College poll found that 28% of likely voters needed to learn more about Ms. Harris. Just 9% said the same about Mr. Trump.
Seeking to fill the gaps, Mr. Trump and his allies have cast Ms. Harris as weak, a failure and a “Marxist.” They warn that her evolution on fracking, immigration and gun rights is pure politics and that she will revert to her radical liberal nature if elected.
This week, they targeted these voters with a television ad driving the message that “Bidenomics” is hurting them from the moment they wake to the moment they climb back into bed.
The cost of groceries, gas and home mortgages is up while wages have remained stagnant, the ad says before closing with a video clip of a smiling Ms. Harris saying, “Bidenomics is working, and we are very proud of Bidenomics.”
“Pleasant dreams,” the narrator says.
“She is running against President Trump’s record, but voters remember his presidency more fondly than they feel about how things are right now,” Mr. Blair said. “They remember being better off under Trump, they remember how they felt — and they felt better than they do now.”
He said the underlying feelings of undecided voters are generally favorable for Mr. Trump on the economy, immigration and crime issues.
“Those dynamics underlying undecided voters are all significant headwinds for Kamala Harris,” Mr. Blair said.
Fighting to turn the tables, Ms. Harris has told her carefully curated campaign crowds that she is laser-focused on the issues that matter to families nationwide, including the cost of living, strengthening small businesses, making health care more affordable and “protecting reproductive freedom.”
“But that is not what we heard from Donald Trump,” she said at a recent campaign rally. “It was the same old show, same old tired playbook we have heard for years, with no plan on how he would address the needs of the American people. … Look, it is time to turn the page.”
• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.
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