OPINION:
The Oct. 1 vice presidential debate between Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio dealt with one foreign policy question: the widening war in the Middle East.
Not discussed were Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its threats to use nuclear weapons, China’s attempts to intimidate Taiwan, tension in the South China Sea or North Korea’s missile expansion and threats to use nuclear weapons. Or how the axis of authoritarian states (Russia, China, Iran and North Korea) is determined to change the world order.
Russia has been on a roll: the 2008 invasion of Georgia, the seizure of Crimea in 2014 and the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine surprised an overconfident Vladimir Putin, yet the war continues, with Russian casualties exceeding 500,000.
From the time Russia invaded Ukraine, Mr. Putin has threatened to use tactical nuclear weapons. He recently announced a new nuclear doctrine: Aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state, but with the participation or support of a nuclear one, should be considered a joint attack.
Moreover, he said Russia would be prepared to use nuclear weapons “upon receipt of reliable information of a massive launch of air and space attack weapons and their crossing of the state border.”
Russia has about 5,580 nuclear weapons, with 1,710 deployed; the U.S. has about 5,044 nuclear weapons, with about 1,770 deployed. Russia and the U.S. adhere to the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, which limits the number of deployed nuclear weapons. Last year, Mr. Putin announced that Russia was suspending its participation in the New START treaty with the U.S., the only treaty that limited both countries’ nuclear weapons.
China is focusing on an ambitious nuclear expansion program. It has about 500 nuclear weapons and is expected to have about 1,000 nuclear weapons by 2030 and 1,500 by 2035.
China is building more missile silos: 120 in Gansu province and about 110 in Xinjiang province. China’s Rocket Force, established by President Xi Jinping, receives significant resources for the nuclear modernization program. China is not a member of New START and continues to refuse to discuss its nuclear program with the U.S.
China continues to encircle and threaten Taiwan and claim sovereignty over the South China Sea despite a 2016 U.N. Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling in favor of the Philippines that said China’s actions were unlawful. China continues to ignore the ruling.
This is also the China that continues to provide support to Russia for its war in Ukraine.
North Korea has about 50 nuclear weapons and enough fissile material to produce seven nuclear weapons per year. It also has a chemical and biological program, and in 2002, it was the only country that withdrew from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Since the failure of the February 2019 Hanoi Summit, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has been in a race to build more nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles to launch them as far as the U.S. with the Hwasong-17, a road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile capable of carrying multiple reentry vehicles, with a range of 15,000 kilometers (over 9,320 miles), capable of reaching the entire U.S.
Last week, Mr. Kim threatened to use nuclear weapons and destroy South Korea if provoked. The North Korean Constitution will be modified to reject reconciliation with South Korea, which they view as the enemy along with the U.S.
Mr. Kim made it clear: North Korea would use without hesitation all offensive forces, including nuclear weapons, if South Korea encroaches on its sovereignty.
North Korea is aligned with Russia, and they have pledged to defend each other if attacked. Indeed, North Korea is providing Russia with artillery shells and ballistic missiles for its war in Ukraine.
Iran is in a category by itself.
Iran enriches uranium to 60%, enabling it to produce weapons-grade uranium in a few weeks. The International Atomic Energy Agency monitors Iran’s nuclear-related activities and has expressed concern about not getting the access its monitors require to certify that Iran is in compliance with IAEA safeguards.
Moreover, Iran’s ballistic missile program is impressive — 12 types of medium-range and short-range ballistic missiles. It is only a matter of time before Iran has ICBMs capable of targeting Europe and the U.S. This is in addition to its support of its proxies Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. Iran’s goal: to annihilate Israel.
This is the axis of authoritarian states. The nations’ goal is to change the world order.
The 79th session of the U.N. General Assembly had 87 heads of state addressing the world. General Assembly President Philemon Yang spoke of “laying the foundation for a sustainable, just and peaceful global order — for all people and all nations.”
These hopeful words fly in the face of a dangerous world in disarray.
• Joseph R. DeTrani served as special envoy for the Six-Party Talks with North Korea from 2003 to 2006 and as director of the National Counterproliferation Center. The views expressed here are the author’s and not those of any government agency or department.
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