The Cook Political Report on Tuesday shifted the Wisconsin Senate Race from “lean Democrat” to “toss-up,” further boosting the GOP’s chances for flipping the upper chamber on Election Day.
While two-term Democratic incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin has consistently led her Republican opponent, Eric Hovde, recent polling shows Mr. Hovde closing the gap in the race’s final stretch.
A poll from the Cook Political Report released last week showed that Ms. Baldwin leads Mr. Hovde by 2 points.
“This tightening, as Hovde has further consolidated Republicans behind him and brought independents over to his side, is largely predictable,” the Cook Political Report’s Jessica Taylor said. “Wisconsin is one of the most evenly divided states in the country, and the 2022 Senate race was decided by 1 point.”
Sen. Ron Johnson, Wisconsin Republican, eked out that 1-point victory two years ago when President Biden in 2020 won the state by less than 1 percent of the vote.
In her reelection in 2018, Ms. Baldwin easily rolled to a 10-point victory.
Real Clear Polling’s average of recent polls showed Ms. Baldwin with a 3.5-point lead over Mr. Hovde, way down from her peak in June of nearly 8 points.
The tightening Wisconsin race only adds to the headaches for Senate Democrats.
The Montana race for U.S. Senate, which will be key in deciding which party controls the chamber, has moved steadily in favor of the GOP. As a backup plan, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has invested in Texas and Florida, where its candidates are gaining ground.
DSCC Chair Sen. Gary Peters, Michigan Democrat, told reporters on a call last week that races tightening toward the latter stage of the election cycle is where he expected things to be and argued that Democrats’ candidate quality and coordinated ground game would win out over the GOP.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee said the tightening of the Wisconsin race reflects how voters are turning away from Democrats.
“After 25 years in Washington, Tammy Baldwin has become the typical D.C. politician, voting in lock-step with the failed Biden agenda and hiding her Wall Street partner’s stock trades from her constituents. Wisconsinites are ready for change, and Eric Hovde has the momentum,” said NRSC Spokesman Tate Mitchell.
The DSCC did not respond to questions about the new rating for the Wisconsin race.
• Alex Miller can be reached at amiller@washingtontimes.com.
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