Cruz still favorite in Texas Senate race, but Democrats coming on

Rep. Colin Allred has gained ground in the Texas Senate race in the waning weeks of the election, giving Democrats a glimmer of hope in the Republican stronghold. 

Sen. Ted Cruz is still favored to win. While Democrats have an uphill battle in Texas, recent polling, Mr. Allred’s fundraising prowess and election watchers forecasting a closer-than-expected race have the Republican incumbent aggressively campaigning to keep his seat. 

If Mr. Allred were to win, he would be the first Democrat elected to statewide office in Texas in nearly three decades. Democrats are trying to cling to power in the upper chamber, and with the Montana Senate race leaning toward the GOP, they see Texas as a viable backup plan.

Mr. Cruz’s campaign has taken Mr. Allred as a serious threat, painting him as a radical who votes in lockstep with the Biden-Harris administration. 

“We’ve said this would be a tight race from the beginning,” Cruz campaign spokeswoman Macarena Martinez said in a statement to The Washington Times. “Chuck Schumer and Democrats nationwide are pouring tens of millions of dollars into this race to elect Colin Allred, destroy Texas and accelerate the decline of America, which is why Sen. Cruz has been on the road meeting, talking and rallying with voters to ensure that we Keep Texas, Texas, and send Colin Allred and his radical record packing.” 

A pro-Cruz super political action committee, Truth and Courage PAC, launched a $3 million ad campaign last week blasting Mr. Allred for his vote against the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act of 2023, which would bar biological males from competing in sports against females.

Mr. Cruz, who is seeking a third term in the upper chamber, has a tremendous name ID advantage over Mr. Allred, who was elected to the House in 2018 after flipping Texas’ 32nd Congressional District and unseating longtime lawmaker Pete Sessions, who won in the 17th District two years later. 

Part of Mr. Cruz’s aggressive campaign comes after a tight finish in his 2018 matchup against Beto O’Rourke, with the lawmaker eking out a 2-point victory.

The Cook Political Report on Monday shifted the race between Mr. Cruz and Mr. Allred from likely Republican to lean Republican. The change doesn’t mean the contest has become a toss-up, but it does show that Democrats have a shot.

“Lone Star State still remains tough for a Democrat, but Allred’s fundraising/heavy ad spending, plus Cruz on defense on abortion + Cancun has tightened contest,” the Cook Political Report’s Jessica Taylor posted on X. 

Mr. Allred grew up in the Lone Star State, attended Baylor University and went on to play linebacker for the NFL’s Tennessee Titans. 

He has styled himself as a moderate lawmaker who can work with Republicans. Indeed, his campaign on Thursday launched Republicans for Allred, a group co-chaired by former Rep. Adam Kinzinger, a Republican but vehement anti-Trumper. Democratic Sen. Jon Tester launched a similar group in his tight race in Montana against Tim Sheehy. 

“This is a serious effort to reach out to Republicans,” Mr. Kinzinger said. “You’re going to see other folks come out and say, ‘Look, we’re going to put slight differences aside because we actually believe in this country and what it stands for like Colin does and unlike Ted Cruz does.’” 

Polling aggregate RealClearPolling showed that Mr. Cruz leads Mr. Allred by an average of 5 points. The latest poll from Emerson College and the Hill, which was conducted from Sept. 22-24, found that Mr. Allred trailed by 4 points, with 6% of voters undecided. 

Mr. Cruz’s recognition does come with baggage, as his campaign is still dealing with the ramifications of his ill-timed flight to Cancun in 2021 when the state was slammed by a winter storm.

Democrats are also pouncing on him for championing Texas’ near-total ban on abortion after the 2022 Dobbs decision. 

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee last week committed to a multimillion-dollar ad campaign that features women who left the state to get abortions.

“Allred’s unique coalition of voters, the resources and work of his campaign, and Cruz’s weaknesses all put the Texas Senate race in play,” Allred campaign manager Paige Hutchinson said in a memo.