ROME — Conventional wisdom says the European right, buoyed by robust election results this summer, will be further strengthened if Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential election on Tuesday.
It’s unclear, however, which European right would be the most amenable to the Republican.
“When people ask about the European right, I ask them, ‘Which kind of right?’” Antonio Villafranca, vice president of research with the Italian Institute for International Political Studies, a Milan-based think tank, said in an interview.
While European trans-Atlanticists greet the prospect of a second Trump administration with a mixture of dread and horror, not everyone is bracing for disaster. Many of the former president’s political themes — notably a focus on illegal immigration, traditional values, populism and a distrust of global elites — have proved politically potent in countries such as Sweden, the Netherlands, Spain and Italy.
Combined, far-right and conservative parties have more influence in Europe now than at any other time in decades. They are part of the ruling coalition in seven European Union member states. A once-shunned far-right party that won Austria’s national vote in September could raise that number to eight. In other countries, conservatives have the parliamentary power to shape legislation.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, a former Dutch prime minister, was chosen this year after building a workable relationship with Mr. Trump during his first four years in the White House.
Comfort Ero, president of the International Crisis Group think tank, wrote in a recent analysis that a Trump victory would significantly boost “the morale of far-right European politicians working against a stronger, more integrated Europe.”
Europe’s conservative forces are by no means a monolith. The various camps have big differences.
Mr. Villafranca pointed to the traditional European fiscal conservatives, the reformist parties headed by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, nationalists such as French opposition leader Marine Le Pen, European Union skeptics such as Viktor Orban of Hungary, Brexit architect Nigel Farage, and smaller and more extreme parties that dot the continent’s political landscape.
“In general, all the European right-wing parties should — and I am very careful to use the conditional ‘should’ — look favorably on Trump’s election,” Mr. Villafranca said. “But there is also a sense of trepidation among them in certain policy areas when it comes to a new Trump administration.”
Mirror agendas
European conservatives mirror many of Mr. Trump’s political priorities. Most oppose mass migration, and they appeal to nationalist pride and the support of traditional values. They are primarily skeptical of centralized power, which for European conservatives means the centralized Brussels bureaucracy of the European Union.
One aspect of another Trump presidency that worries Europeans concerns trans-Atlantic relations and security. Mr. Trump has criticized NATO member states that spend little on defense and said the U.S. may not come to their aid if attacked as required by NATO’s Article 5, which focuses on collective defense.
In comments early this year that ricocheted across Europe, Mr. Trump drew a tough line against NATO members that failed to pay their share toward the alliance’s collective defense.
“‘You didn’t pay? You’re delinquent?’” Mr. Trump said at a South Carolina rally in February, recounting what he said was a conversation with an unidentified NATO leader complaining about Mr. Trump’s tough line.
“‘No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage [the Russians] to do whatever the hell they want. You’ve got to pay. You’ve got to pay your bills,’” Mr. Trump recalled saying.
Mr. Trump would likely cut off or scale back military and economic aid to Ukraine to force the country to negotiate with Russia. Leaders in Eastern Europe worry that an emboldened President Vladimir Putin could set his sights on their territories if Ukraine falls to Russia.
“Whether the U.S. remains an active player in European security, whether it continues to provide military aid to Ukraine, and also how the election plays out in our own democracies, those are the key factors Europeans are considering,” said Michal Baranowski, managing director of the German Marshall Fund East and the organization’s regional director for Poland.
Elusive consensus
European leaders disagree on how to deal with Mr. Trump in a second term.
Mr. Orban has formed a mutual admiration society. In his debate with Democratic opponent Kamala Harris, Mr. Trump said he could work with the Hungarian conservative.
Mr. Orban was the only world leader to visit Mr. Trump at Mar-a-Lago in July after the United Nations General Assembly in New York. To the consternation of many of his fellow EU leaders, he has called the former U.S. president “a man of peace.”
Mr. Trump is trying “to pull the American people back from a post-nationalist liberal state to a nation-state,” Mr. Orban said this summer. He said that was why left-leaning elites on both sides of the Atlantic have attacked him.
Mr. Orban also has cultivated Europe’s closest ties with Mr. Putin and has worked to slow or block aid to Ukraine within the European Union. That likely aligns with Mr. Trump’s view.
Depending on how close the American election turns out, Mr. Orban may not be as much of an outlier during a second Trump administration.
Ms. Meloni, in Italy, has been one of Ukraine’s most reliable allies in Europe and has even pledged to host the 2025 global conference to rebuild the country after the conclusion of the war with Russia. According to speculation in Europe, however, Ms. Meloni and other leaders could soften their support for Ukraine to get closer to the Trump administration.
Sudha David-Wilp, a Berlin-based senior fellow with the German Marshall Fund, said European leaders could use a Trump victory to distance themselves from Ukraine. Polls show growing public weariness with the heavy bills that have come with supporting Kyiv in the face of a relentless Russian offensive.
“We shouldn’t underestimate the prospect that a number of European leaders could see as a political opportunity, a deal where they could scapegoat Donald Trump for the future of Ukraine,” Ms. David-Wilp said. “You could imagine that, rather cynically, some European leaders would be happy to say that the loss of Ukraine is a result of Donald Trump’s policies and that they are not responsible for it.”
Mr. Orban announced on social media last week that he had called Mr. Trump and wished him “best of luck for next Tuesday.”
“Only five days to go,” he posted. “Fingers crossed.”
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