Peaceful reunification is no longer North Korea’s goal

OPINION:

North Korea’s enhanced allied relationship with Russia and leader Kim Jong-un’s decision to send troops to aid Russia in its war of aggression in Ukraine could be the prelude to war on the Korean Peninsula.

When North Korea was closely allied with the Soviet Union from 1950 to 1991, the regime in Pyongyang was reckless. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 and North Korea could no longer rely on Moscow, they changed tack and behaved responsibly. Now, North Korea is allied with Russia and will likely revert to provoking South Korea and inciting war on the Korean Peninsula.

Soviet leader Josef Stalin gave North Korean leader Kim Il-sung permission to invade South Korea in June 1950. An armistice was signed in July 1953 after significant North Korean, South Korean, Chinese and U.S. casualties.

In 1961, the Soviet Union and North Korea signed the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance. In 1963, the Soviets provided North Korea with a research reactor at the Yongbyon Nuclear Research Center and significant missile technology assistance — and the promise of a light-water reactor — until the Soviet Union collapsed in December 1991.

North Korea’s alliance with the Soviet Union emboldened North Korean leader Kim Il-sung, resulting in myriad terrorist acts:

• The January 1968 North Korean commando raid and attempted assassination of South Korean President Park Chung-hee at his residence in the Blue House.

• The October 1983 North Korean commando squad sent to Burma (now Myanmar) to assassinate South Korean President Chun Doo-hwan and his delegation, resulting in the death of 26 South Korean officials, with 46 injured. Mr. Chun had mechanical problems, arriving late to witness the massacre.

• The November 1987 Korean Airlines Flight 858 exploded in midair when two North Korean agents planted a bomb in the overhead bin in the passenger cabin, killing all 115 passengers and crew.

With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, North Korea lost a key ally and supporter. It was forced to rely solely on China, with whom it had a 1961 Mutual Aid, Cooperation and Friendship Treaty, committing China to provide military assistance if North Korea were attacked.

This treaty is renewed every 20 years — 1981, 2001 and 2021. But it was China that normalized relations with South Korea in 1992 and focused on economic development and stability in the region. Leaders such as Deng Xiaoping no doubt made it clear to North Korea that its past reckless behavior was not in China’s interest.

Indeed, in 1992, North Korea and South Korea signed a denuclearization agreement, committing both nations to refrain from testing, manufacturing, producing, receiving, possessing, storing, deploying or using nuclear weapons. Nuclear energy would be used exclusively for peaceful purposes.

North Korea in the 1990s and 2000s sought a good, normal relationship primarily with the U.S. but also with South Korea and Japan. With the death of Kim Il-sung, his son Kim Jong-il took over and moved forward with the Agreed Framework with the U.S. and the Six-Party Talks hosted by China. Both agreements committed North Korea to complete and verifiable denuclearization in return for economic development assistance and a path to normal relations with the U.S.

The Six-Party Talks ended in 2009 because of North Korea’s efforts to deny nuclear monitors access to suspected highly enriched uranium sites. In March 2010, North Korea used a miniature submarine to sink a South Korean corvette, the Cheonan, killing 46 sailors.

In November 2010, North Korea shelled South Korea’s Yeonpyeong Island at the Northern Limit Line established by the U.N. separating South and North Korea in the West Sea.

There is a pattern with North Korea: When developments are in its favor, it behaves reasonably. When developments are not in its favor, it is hostile.

North Korea is threatening to preemptively use nuclear weapons if it perceives a threat to the leadership or command and control. South Korea and the U.S. are North Korea’s principal enemies, and peaceful reunification is no longer North Korea’s goal, having destroyed all railways and roads connecting North and South Korea. This is while North Korea builds more nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles to deliver these weapons of mass destruction.

North Korea’s new alliance with Russia and their treaty commits each to the defense of the other if attacked. North Korea is now sending troops to aid Russia in its war in Ukraine, in addition to providing artillery shells and ballistic missiles. This is a clear statement from Pyongyang that it has given up on South Korea and the U.S. and is fully in Russia’s camp.

The only country that could persuade Kim Jong-un to stop this escalation is China. So far, China has refrained from helping North Korea, given its tense relationship with the U.S. But it is also in China’s interest to convince Mr. Kim that war on the Korean Peninsula must be prevented.

Chinese leaders Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao did it, responding to President George W. Bush’s requests for assistance with North Korea. The question now is whether Xi Jinping will intercede with North Korea to prevent war on the Korean Peninsula.

• Joseph R. DeTrani is the former director of East Asia operations at the CIA and served as special envoy for the Six-Party Talks with North Korea from 2003 to 2006 and as director of the National Counterproliferation Center. The views expressed here are the author’s and not those of any government agency or department.