Of the seven presidential swing states this cycle, Nevada is the only one that hasn’t swung in the past four presidential races. That could change next week.
Nevada has not voted for a Republican presidential nominee in two decades, not since George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004.
Since then, Nevada’s electoral votes have gone to the Democratic presidential nominee.
While that pattern seemingly favors Vice President Kamala Harris, Nevada may be poised to back former President Donald Trump.
Republicans currently have a 5% edge in early voting turnout in the state, which bodes well for Mr. Trump.
“And there is almost no way to say anything other than that the Dems need to do a lot of heavy lifting to make this a race by Nov. 5 (and beyond),” Jon Ralston, CEO and editor of The Nevada Independent, wrote in his early voting blog.
“Can they do it? It’s foolish to underestimate their ability to get out their voters after four straight presidential cycles of victories,” he said. “They will make a comeback, but will it be enough?”
Democrats have a slight voter registration edge in Nevada, with 593,223 active registered voters to their party compared to 574,270 for Republicans. But active voters registered as nonpartisan outnumber both political parties at 663,613, roughly 40% of whom are under age 35.
While Mr. Ralston acknowledges that Democrats will do well with nonpartisan and independent voters in urban areas, he said it likely won’t be enough for a decisive win.
“Even in the best-case scenario for the Dems, smart Dems still believe it will be very close — and by close I mean 10,000 votes or so,” he said. “That would be less than 1%.”
In an interview before early voting began on Oct. 19, Ted Pappageorge, the secretary-treasurer of the Culinary Workers Union Local 226, told The Washington Times that Nevada is not a blue state despite its recent voting trends.
“This will be as close as anything we’ve seen, and we’ve been awfully close the last few cycles,” he said.
The Culinary Union, which represents 60,000 workers in Las Vegas and Reno and has the largest get-out-the-vote operation in the state, endorsed Ms. Harris.
“Before Kamala Harris jumped into the race and became the nominee, Trump was winning by 5 to 10 points in most polls in Nevada,” Mr. Pappageorge said. “She is young, she’s strong, energetic and a fighter. She’s energized the race.”
About a month after Ms. Harris entered the race, she had erased the polling gap, and Nevada has been seen as a toss-up. Mr. Trump is now leading by less than a point in Real Clear Polling’s average of recent polls.
If Mr. Trump were to win, that would solidify Nevada’s status as a swing state.
But if Ms. Harris secures a victory and continues the state’s trend of voting for Democratic presidential nominees, will Nevada remain in the swing state mix?
“We’re pretty much always going to be a swing state,” said David Damore, director of two public policy centers at the University of Nevada Las Vegas.
He cited several reasons. One is that Nevada remains a bellwether state. It has voted for all but two of the presidential winners since 1912.
The 2016 race in which Mr. Trump beat Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton was the last time Nevada did not vote for the winner, but before that, the state hadn’t gotten it wrong since picking President Gerald Ford over then-Gov. Jimmy Carter in 1976.
Another factor keeping Nevada in the swing state conversation is that the margins of its presidential races remain close.
While 26 states had at least one election in the past eight presidential cycles that were won by less than 3 points, Nevada and Florida were the ones with the most within that margin, with five tight races each, according to USAFacts, a nonprofit, nonpartisan group that compiles and analyzes government data.
Mr. Damore said there was a time coming out of the Obama years when he thought Democrats would build a 5- to 6-point advantage given Nevada’s urban population centers — 90% of the state lives in Las Vegas’ Clark County and Reno’s Washoe County — and majority minority population. But that hasn’t happened.
“The Democrats just have not been able to capitalize on the state’s demography to put it out of reach for the Republicans, particularly now that you have this growing realignment around education,” Mr. Damore said. “So one of the key things that keeps the Republicans, and will continue to keep them in the game, is we’re 45th in college attainment.”
He added: “Because of the lower rates of participation, particularly among Latinos, the electorate tends to skew whiter and older than the state’s demography.”
David Schultz, lead author of “Presidential Swing States,” who is preparing to write his fourth edition of the book after the 2024 election, said regardless of the election results, Nevada will remain a swing state because it meets his criteria.
Although Nevada has not swung in several cycles, Mr. Schultz said it meets the other criteria: “It’s still pretty competitive, the candidates are going there,” and it’s been a bellwether most cycles.
“My suspicion is that whoever are going to be the presidential candidates in ’28 are going to go there,” he said.
Nevada is not the only competitive state that has had infrequent swings. The other six states considered presidential swing states this cycle — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — have each only had one election since 2000 in which they broke the established trend.
Mr. Schultz said Pennsylvania, “arguably the most important swing state now,” was not in the first edition of his book published in 2015.
“Up until 2016, Pennsylvania has been a pretty reliable state for Democrats. Yeah, it’s been kind of competitive. It’s been a battleground. But the Democrats were holding it, they’re holding it, they’re holding it. And then finally, of course, Trump has the breakthrough.”
Other states that once frequently swung between the parties, like Ohio and Florida, are now reliably red because of demographic changes.
“They do shift over time,” Mr. Schultz said of the swing states.
Democrats also acknowledge it is not yet Nevada’s time to fall off the list.
“Nevada is going to stay a swing state,” Mr. Pappageorge said.
• Lindsey McPherson can be reached at lmcpherson@washingtontimes.com.
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