China is expanding the number of road-mobile DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missiles that Beijing has called the “Guam killer” for its ability to attack American forces on the Pacific island, according to a Defense Intelligence Agency report on foreign nuclear threats.
The DIA stated that China is deploying more DF-26s, described as Beijing’s first-ever precision-strike nuclear capability.
“The commingling of nuclear and conventional capabilities raises the potential for inadvertent escalation during a conflict,” the report said.
A photo included in the report shows the dual-capable DF-26 with a hinged payload door that can be used to load nuclear or conventional warheads. The report said the swappable warhead feature on the DF-26 is “unique among China’s nuclear capable systems.”
The road-mobile missile system “can conduct both conventional and nuclear precision strikes against ground targets as well as conventional strikes against naval targets,” the report said.
China also is working on lower-yield nuclear warheads that will provide “proportional response” options that are not possible with larger warheads.
“For example, China is increasing its stockpile of theater-range delivery systems, such as the DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM),” the report said, suggesting low-yield warheads will be placed on that missile.
Chinese officials said the U.S. withdrawal from the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty between the United States and Russia in 2019 has hurt strategic stability between the world’s top nuclear powers. In response, China has “fielded thousands of weapon systems, including the DF-26, that would be covered by the treaty if China were to participate,” the report said.
The National Air and Space Intelligence Center disclosed in a 2021 report that the number of DF-26 launchers increased from 200 road-mobile launchers in 2019 to 350 launchers in less than seven months.
Chinese state media has called the DF-26 a “Guam killer” and the “Guam Express,” based on its range of 2,485 miles, enough to reach the island from mobile launchers fired from southern China.
Actual numbers of single-warhead DF-26s were not included in the report. Private defense analysts estimate there are 250 launchers along with additional reload missiles.
The missile is also said to be capable of attacking U.S. aircraft carriers at sea.
Admiral Sam Paparo, commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific command, said in June at the island’s Anderson Air Force Base that through the Guam defense system protecting the island as part of the U.S. homeland is “my No. 1 priority.”
New details
The 64-page report, “Nuclear Challenges,” also provides new details on the rapidly growing nuclear weapons programs of China, Russia and North Korea.
Iran, according to DIA, is continuing to stockpile enriched uranium far beyond the limits of the now-canceled 2015 Iran nuclear deal. The enriched uranium has shortened the time Tehran needs to produce weapons-grade uranium for a single nuclear device if the regime decides to build nuclear arms.
China’s large-scale and rapidly expanding nuclear arms are among the more alarming developments highlighted by the DIA.
“China is undergoing the most rapid expansion and ambitious modernization of its nuclear forces in history — almost certainly driven by an aim for enduring strategic competition with the U.S. and a goal to actualize intensified strategic concepts that have existed for decades but are now being realized,” the report said.
The U.S. Strategic Command has called China’s nuclear expansion a sharp “breakout” from Beijing’s previous smaller force. The DIA said in 2020 China’s total warhead arsenal was estimated to be in the “low 200s,” and was expected to double in the 2030s.
Beijing instead sped up its warhead production: It now has more than 500 warheads and is on track to have over 1,000 warheads by 2030. The warheads will be deployed on missiles and bombers capable of reaching the United States, the report said.
“China is investing immense resources into a nuclear expansion including air-, sea-, and land-based nuclear capabilities,” the report said.
Despite a requirement under the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, which China acceded to in 1992, Beijing so far has refused to engage in arms talks designed to end the nuclear arms race and promote nuclear disarmament.
The People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force is building new missiles, and the expansion requires new production of warheads for multiple, independently targetable re-entry vehicle capabilities and general force growth.
For missile submarines, China fielded two more Jin-class nuclear missile submarines for a total of six. The subs provide continuous strategic deterrence patrols during peacetime.
China also has built a growing force of H-6N air-refuellable bombers and outfitted with a unique air-launched ballistic missile, the report said.
The PLA also is working to deploy a “global-range” hypersonic glide vehicle that in a 2021 test traveled about 25,000 miles in space before descending and striking a land target. The system is called a fractional orbital bombardment system.
The report identified the locations of three new missile fields at Hami, Guazhou and Hanggin Banner along the border with Mongolia. The new missile fields were described by state media reports as wind turbine farms, in an apparent bid to deceive Western intelligence.
The PLA Rocket Force is shifting its posture to a “launch-on-warning” system – firing retaliatory missile strikes when incoming missile attacks are detected by global sensor networks.
The report said Russian President Vladimir Putin has said Moscow is providing sensor data for Beijing’s new system.
Despite its declared policy of not being the first to use nuclear arms in a conflict, China is probably considering the use of nuclear weapons if a war over Taiwan gravely threatened the Communist regime’s survival, the report said.
Russia’s nuclear force modernization is nearing completion, according to DIA, and includes advanced arms that Mr. Putin said can evade current U.S. countermeasures.
The new systems include the Sarmat ICBM, Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle, Kinzhal hypersonic missile, Skyfall nuclear-powered cruise missile, and the Poseidon nuclear-powered underwater vehicle. New ballistic missile submarines are under development and heavy bombers are now equipped with precision-guided cruise missiles.
North Korea’s strategic force is armed with four types of missiles ranging from short-range systems to ICBMs.
Along with numerous recent missile tests, North Korea’s army performed drills that simulate the loading and launching of nuclear weapons to threaten the United States and its regional allies, the report said.
Iran lacked nuclear weapons but continues to build ballistic missile systems with increased accuracy and lethality.
“Currently, the Iranian missile force is the largest in the Middle East and serves as Iran’s primary conventional deterrent, capable of striking targets [1,200 miles] from its borders,” the report said.
“Iran continues to develop space-launch vehicles with boosters that could be capable of ICBM ranges if configured for that purpose.”
• Bill Gertz can be reached at bgertz@washingtontimes.com.
Please read our comment policy before commenting.