‘Stable uncertainty’: Election season barely changed, but voters want a break

NEWS AND OPINION:

So how are voters feeling about Election Day — a mere 12 days off as of Thursday?

“Presidential election polling this fall can best be characterized as stable uncertainty,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

“Major events like an assassination attempt [on former President Donald Trump] and a high-profile debate barely caused the needle to stutter. Shifts of a single point can be consequential to the outcome but are beyond the ability of most polls to capture with any precision. The bottom line is this race is a toss-up and has been since August,” Mr. Murray said in a written statement shared with Inside the Beltway.

“Vice President Kamala Harris’s entry into the presidential race may have been a game-changer at the time, but there has been little significant movement since then. While Harris continues to hold slightly more support than former President Donald Trump among all voters nationwide, there is more than enough room for the outcome to go either way as a result of very small shifts in turnout,” Mr. Murray said.

The poll also suggested that voters could use a rest from political turmoil.

“Which is more important to you: to have a stable system of government even if that means not much changes in the country, or to have significant change in the country even if that means our system of government becomes less stable?” the poll asked.

The results: 60% of voters favored a “stable system of government,” while 34% favored “significant change in the country.” The other 6% “don’t know.”

The Monmouth University poll of 802 registered U.S. voters was conducted online and by phone Oct. 17-21.

MOTIVATED IN FLORIDA

“As early voting gets underway, Republicans across Florida quickly surpass Democratic turnout,” FloridaPolitcs.com reported.

As of Tuesday, 1,045,716 Republicans had voted in the state, compared with 899,456 Democrats, the site said.

“At the end of the day, it’s all about turnout. These early numbers make it clear that Florida Republicans are energized to vote,” Evan Power, chairman of the Florida Republican Party, said in a written statement.

TRUMP’S ADVICE

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump took time to sit down for a wide-ranging interview with Fox News Radio host Brian Kilmeade on Wednesday which addressed many, many topics.

Mr. Trump did have some succinct advice for the American public, however.

“The main thing is you’ve got to vote. You’ve got to vote. Voting early, I guess, would be good. But people have different feelings about it. But the main thing is, you’ve got to get out, and you’ve got to vote,” Mr. Trump told his host.

“And I will be voting early,” he added.

A TAXING SITUATION

“Kamala Harris running mate Tim Walz, Minnesota Democrat, has earned the lowest score on the newly-released 2024 Fiscal Policy Report Card on America’s Governors, compiled and published by the Cato Institute. The strictly data-driven report shows Walz not only earned an ’F’ grade, his overall numerical score ranks dead last — 50th place — compared to other governors. He earned a score of just 19, a full ten points below the second-worst governor, New York’s Kathy Hochul, a Democrat,” according to Americans for Tax Reform.

The organization is citing a new report released by the Cato Institute that analyzed the fiscal policies of the nation’s governors.

Mr. Walz “has overseen substantial spending increases and pushed many tax hikes. Minnesota’s general fund budget increased from $51.9 billion in the 2022-2023 biennium to $70.5 billion in the 2024-2025 biennium, a 36% increase,” the Cato research said.

“Walz hit the middle class with HF 2887, which raised taxes and fees on vehicles and transportation. The increases included indexing the gas tax for inflation, increasing vehicle registration taxes, raising fees on deliveries, and raising sales taxes in the Twin Cities area,” it said.

“Cold northern states such as Minnesota that are suffering from out-migration need to adopt taxpayer-friendly policies to stem the population outflow. Minnesota ranks 44th on the Tax Foundation’s state business tax climate index. That state will likely continue losing business investment and high earners to warmer and lower-tax states until it adopts a leaner government and reduced tax rates,” Cato said.

Find the Cato Institute at cato.org.

CHECK YOUR CLOSET

“Many economists say the U.S. has avoided a recession for now, but there is one potentially ominous sign: a luxury goods slowdown,” Forbes.com reported.

“LVMH — which owns brands like Louis Vuitton, Christian Dior, Fendi and Hennessy — disappointed investors with its quarterly results last week, with revenue growth well below what it saw in 2023. Despite high price tags, luxury items have historically seen strong sales during various economic conditions, as people shop for status and quality,“ the report said.

“The slowdown could mean that even top-level consumers are being cautious about spending. To return to growth, luxury brands will have to prove their worth to consumers and possibly even cut prices,” the report said.

“Unlike many consumer goods, luxury items tend to have strong sales throughout different economic conditions. People buy luxury goods for their status and quality. If the high-end consumer’s confidence in these brands is waning and they’re becoming less likely to spend, it could mean that the economic uncertainty that’s permeated the last two years is finally reaching the top-level consumers,” said the Forbes report, which was released Wednesday.

POLL DU JOUR

• 82% of U.S. adults say the 2024 election season has been an emotional roller coaster.

• 44% are concerned about how their lives will be affected by the results of the presidential election.

• 43% are concerned about how democracy in the U.S. will be affected.

• 43% are concerned about having to vote for a candidate they do not fully support.

• 39% are concerned about potential political violence.

• 38% are concerned about the quality of the candidates.

• 37% are concerned about divisions between U.S. political parties.

SOURCE: An American Psychological Association “Stress in America” poll of 3,305 U.S. adults conducted online Aug. 1-23 by the Harris Poll and released Tuesday. Respondents could cite multiple concerns.

• Contact Jennifer Harper at jharper@washingtontimes.com.