The battle for the House majority will be decided by a smattering of races across the country, and neither party has a clear advantage two weeks before Election Day.
Conventional wisdom in Washington holds that Democrats have the edge in pursuing a net gain of four seats needed to wrest control of the chamber. Republicans, however, are determined to hold on to power.
“It’s going to be tight,” a Republican source said. “I’d rather be us than them, but you never really know till Election Day.”
The Washington Times homed in on 14 pivotal House races that will decide the majority. Election forecasters agree that the races are toss-ups or lean against the incumbent.
Republican incumbents are underdogs in two Democratic-leaning districts, one in New York and the other in Nebraska.
New York 22nd
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Rep. Brandon Williams, a Republican, is vying for a second term in the upstate district that includes Syracuse, Rome and Utica. He is up against a stiff challenge by Democratic state Sen. John Mannion.
Mr. Williams came to Congress in the 2022 wave of New York seats that flipped to Republicans and helped give them the majority. Republicans knew his reelection would be a challenge after redistricting gave Democrats an advantage.
New York 4th
Another New York Republican who flipped a seat last cycle, Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, is in a tough rematch against Democrat Laura Gillen. In 2022, Mr. D’Esposito defeated her by less than 10,000 votes in the Long Island district, one of the country’s most Democratic areas with a Republican representative.
The D’Esposito campaign was shaken up by a New York Times report that the congressman hired his mistress and his fiancee’s daughter to work in his district office, a potential violation of House ethics rules. Mr. D’Esposito has not denied the allegations.
Nebraska 2nd
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Democrat Tony Vargas has the lead against Republican Rep. Don Bacon in several polls in the district that includes Omaha. Though Mr. Bacon has pulled off four victories, this year is proving more difficult. President Biden won the district in 2020, and Vice President Kamala Harris is polling ahead of former President Donald Trump, which could help Mr. Vargas.
Democrats are trying to hang on in several pure toss-up races:
Alaska 1st
Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola, the first Alaska Native to serve in Congress, is up against Republican Nick Begich III in the conservative state. The race for the sole at-large House seat is statewide.
Ms. Peltola is one of five Democrats running for reelection in areas Mr. Trump won in 2020 by 10 percentage points.
Ms. Peltola defeated Mr. Begich, a businessman and grandson of the former congressman with the same name, and former Gov. Sarah Palin to win the seat in a 2022 special election to replace longtime Republican Rep. Don Young. She bested them again in the general election.
This cycle, Ms. Peltola is running with Mr. Trump on the ballot and only one Republican challenger, although a long-shot Democrat and an independent candidate could impact the results because of the state’s ranked-choice voting system.
Mr. Begich is supporting Mr. Trump and has his endorsement. Ms. Peltola has declined to endorse or even say whether she will vote for Ms. Harris. “I think both of our presidential candidates have flaws,” she said during an Oct. 10 debate.
Washington 3rd
Freshman Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, a Democrat, has a formidable challenger in a rematch against Republican Joe Kent, who served as a foreign policy adviser to Mr. Trump after time in the Special Forces and as a CIA field operative. Ms. Gluesenkamp Perez eked out her 2022 win against Mr. Kent by less than 1 percentage point. Mr. Trump won the district, which includes Vancouver’s Clark County, by 4 percentage points in 2020.
Maine 2nd
Democratic Rep. Jared Golden hopes his three-term record as a centrist who has voted against his party on issues including immigration and energy will lift him to victory in a district Mr. Trump won by 6 percentage points in 2020. He faces Republican state Rep. Austin Theriault, a former NASCAR driver.
Mr. Golden predicted earlier this year that Mr. Trump would win a rematch against Mr. Biden and has declined to endorse Ms. Harris since she replaced him as the Democratic presidential nominee. He said he could work with whoever is president. He supports Mr. Trump’s trade agenda to protect American businesses and Ms. Harris’ plans to raise taxes on the wealthy.
Colorado 8th
Freshman Rep. Yadira Caraveo, a Democrat and a pediatrician who won her first congressional race two years ago by less than 1 percentage point, is locked in a tight battle in a district just north of Denver. She faces a new Republican opponent, state Rep. Gabe Evans, an Army veteran and former police officer.
Michigan 7th and 8th
In the presidential battleground state of Michigan, Democrats are trying to hold on to seats vacated by Rep. Elissa Slotkin, who is running for Senate, and Rep. Daniel Kildee, who is retiring.
Republican Tom Barrett, an Army veteran who lost to Ms. Slotkin by 5 percentage points in 2022, is running against Democrat Curtis Hertel, who served in the state Senate and as Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s director of legislative affairs.
In the race to replace Mr. Kildee, perennial Republican candidate Paul Junge, who lost to the longtime incumbent in 2022 and Ms. Slotkin in a previous iteration of the district in 2020, has some name recognition, but it’s not all good.
Democrats have portrayed Mr. Junge, a former criminal prosecutor and news anchor who has self-funded large portions of his campaigns with millions of dollars he inherited from his father, as a “carpetbagger” who moved back to Michigan in 2019 to run for office.
Mr. Junge faces Democratic state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet, who has held leadership roles in Michigan’s Department of Education and Head Start program.
Both Michigan races could be influenced by the top of the ticket. In 2020, Mr. Biden won the 7th District, which includes Lansing, by half a point and the 8th District, which includes Saginaw, by 2 points.
Republican incumbents are in toss-up contests in several liberal-leaning states:
California 45th
Republican Rep. Michelle Steel is running for a third term against Democrat Derek Tran, an Army veteran and consumer rights lawyer. The district is the most competitive this cycle of the closely watched Orange County area races.
A Republican-sponsored poll this month showed Ms. Steel with a 4-percentage-point lead. Ms. Steel, born in South Korea and raised in Japan, has come under fire for a clip in which she says she is “more Vietnamese” than Mr. Tran because she understands and has support from the Vietnamese community.
Mr. Biden carried the district by 6 percentage points in 2020. A strong Harris performance this year could boost Mr. Tran.
California 27th
Republican Rep. Mike Garcia faces Democrat George Whitesides, a former Virgin Galactic CEO and NASA chief of staff. Mr. Garcia, seeking a third term, is contending with a redrawn district that includes portions of northern Los Angeles and an influx of Democratic voters.
California 13th
Freshman Rep. John Duarte, a Republican, is in a rematch against Democrat Adam Gray. Mr. Duarte eked out a win against Mr. Gray in 2022 by just 564 votes, but Republicans think Ms. Harris’ low polling in the San Joaquin Valley district will bolster his chances this year.
New York 19th
Republican Rep. Marcus Molinaro has a rematch against Democrat Josh Riley after defeating him by less than 4,500 votes in 2022. In the district, which stretches from Ithaca to the Catskill Mountains, Mr. Biden defeated Mr. Trump in 2020 by nearly 5 percentage points, so the presidential contest could make a difference.
Oregon 5th
Republicans are defending a freshman incumbent in a Democratic stronghold that stretches south from parts of Portland to Sisters and Bend. Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer flipped the district to the Republican column in 2022, two years after Mr. Biden won there. She is now locked in the state’s most competitive race against state Rep. Janelle Bynum, a Democrat.
Ms. Chavez-DeRemer narrowly won in 2022 by just over 7,000 votes, but Democrats hope Ms. Harris’ popularity in the state will propel Ms. Bynum to victory.
• Lindsey McPherson can be reached at lmcpherson@washingtontimes.com.
• Alex Miller can be reached at amiller@washingtontimes.com.
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