Democratic incumbent losing ground in Pennsylvania Senate race

The U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania is tightening as two recent polls show incumbent Democratic Sen. Robert P. Casey Jr.’s lead evaporating.

​It’s another headache for Senate Democrats struggling to hold onto their thin majority in a tough election cycle.

Mr. Casey has for months maintained a lead of several points over GOP challenger Dave McCormick, a former CEO of the world’s largest hedge fund. 

But his lead has shrunk to an average of 2 points — well within the margin for error — just two weeks out from Election Day, according to Real Clear Polling.

That factors in a recent GOP-sponsored poll, conducted Oct. 17-19, that showed Mr. Casey and Mr. McCormick virtually tied around 47%, although Mr. McCormick had a 0.4% lead.

That same poll showed former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential contest by 3 points, the same as the margin of error.

Another poll conducted by AtlasIntel from Oct. 12-17 had Mr. Trump leading the presidential race by 3 points and Mr. McCormick ahead in the Senate race by 1 point. The margin of error was 2 points. 

The election forecaster Cook Political Report cited the recent polling as it shifted its rating of the race from lean Democrat to a toss-up.

“Both parties’ private polling shows businessman David McCormick shoring up the GOP base and making gains in the western part of the state, particularly in and around Allegheny County/Pittsburgh, where he now lives,” Jessica Taylor, Cook’s Senate analyst, said in a post explaining the change. 

Ms. Taylor said the tight presidential contest in Pennsylvania is impacting the Senate race.

As evidence of that, she noted how Republicans are scoffing at Mr. Casey’s latest TV ad, which boasts that he sided with Mr. Trump to rework the North American Free Trade Agreement.

“Casey’s hold on his blue-collar base may be slipping,” Ms. Taylor said.

National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman Philip Letsou said the party knew the Pennsylvania Senate race was a toss-up “when Bob Casey started running ads claiming he was President Trump’s best friend even though he voted to impeach him twice.”

“Bob Casey is desperately trying to throw Kamala Harris under the bus to save his own political career — it won’t work,” he said.

The Washington Times reached out to the Casey campaign for comment. Ms. Taylor said Democrats always expected the race to tighten down the stretch and that “many of the fundamentals may still very slightly favor Casey.”

“McCormick’s biggest weakness remains abortion, which Casey — formerly the last pro-life Democrat in the Senate — hammered him on in their two recent debates,” she said. “This is where Democrats believe Casey will have the edge in the all-important Philadelphia suburbs with women voters.” 

Both campaigns used Cooks’ rating change news to solicit donations on Monday, which is the last day to register to vote in Pennsylvania.

The Pennsylvania contest has been the second most expensive Senate race of the cycle, next to Ohio, according to AdImpact, which tracks political advertising spending.

Republicans have reserved $29 million in ads for the final two weeks of the campaign, compared to $18 million that Democrats have reserved, AdImpact said.