Upstart Commanders one of biggest early-season surprises in unpredictable NFL

The first month of the NFL season is generally full of surprises. There’s always an also-ran or two from last season that suddenly, out of nowhere, plays like one of the top teams in the league.

But that up-from-the-bottom story rarely involves the Washington Commanders

This year is different: Through four weeks, the 3-1 Commanders have posted impressive road wins against the Arizona Cardinals and Cincinnati Bengals to take sole possession of first place in the NFC East.

While some teams that looked like contenders before the season started, like the 1-3 Miami Dolphins, are stumbling, other dark horses like Washington and the undefeated Minnesota Vikings are defying (most) preseason predictions and expectations.

“I’m not surprised,” Commanders coach Dan Quinn said Wednesday. “I knew the connection would be the No. 1 thing for us to see if we could play well — how long would that take and how connected this team could get on all three phases. … The team’s done a good job of fast-tracking.”

With a new coach, general manager and quarterback, Washington was supposed to be rebuilding this year.

FanDuel Sportsbook had the Commanders’ win total at 6.5, one of the lowest in the league. That number since has shot up to 8.5.

After the first game, the modest expectations seemed reasonable. Washington’s defense provided little resistance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers while the offense, like a newborn deer, struggled to find its footing.

But despite the defense’s struggles, the offense unlocked a new gear in three consecutive wins. Coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s group has opened eyes — and shut some mouths — around the league by scoring on 16 consecutive drives (excluding kneel-downs).

Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has played a pivotal role in that fast-tracking. The reigning Heisman Trophy winner and No. 2 pick in the draft has had a record-breaking start to his NFL career.

Through four games, Daniels’ 82% completion percentage is the best for any four-game start to a season in NFL history. Not the best start for a rookie, the best of any quarterback. He broke efficiency records previously held by Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.

But even Daniels didn’t know the start would be this red-hot. He was focused on developing as a pro.

“I didn’t have any expectations,” Daniels said Sunday. “How much can we learn, and how can we keep growing? For me personally, how much can I learn and keep growing? How fast can I learn to become a pro? I’m going to keep going from there.”

Daniels has led the NFL’s pack of rookie quarterbacks, but one team hit the ground running without their presumed signal-caller of the future.

The Vikings selected Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy with the tenth pick in this year’s draft, presumably to lead the team after Kirk Cousins left in free agency.

After a promising training camp, McCarthy suffered a season-ending meniscus injury during his preseason debut. When the rookie went down, he took the Vikings’ positive buzz with him.

Quarterback Sam Darnold, the former No. 3 pick of the New York Jets, was called on to fill in.

“My confidence level in Sam is very, very high at this point,” Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell said in August.

The confidence seems well-placed. Once considered a bust, Darnold has looked like an MVP candidate as the Vikings marched to a 4-0 start. He leads the league with 11 touchdowns and an NFL-best 118.9 passer rating.

Even more impressive? Darnold and the Vikings have defeated three playoff teams in their first four games, including the defending NFC champion San Francisco 49ers.

But for every overperforming team, someone has to fall short of their preseason goals. That unenviable position has belonged to the Dolphins.

Led by quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and wide receiver Tyreek Hill, the typically high-powered Dolphins offense had its eyes on another playoff run.

The season began with a comeback victory over the still-winless Jacksonville Jaguars, but things rolled downhill quickly.

Tagovailoa has been sidelined since suffering his fourth NFL concussion during a blowout loss to the Buffalo Bills in Week 2. Miami has now lost three games in a row, and the offense has looked rudderless without its typical signal-caller.

In their last three games, the Dolphins have fielded three starting quarterbacks and averaged just 8.3 points per game. Wide receiver Tyreek Hill ranks 28th in receiving yards after leading the league last season. His teammate, the typically explosive Jaylen Waddle, hasn’t found the endzone this season.

“That’s not up to my standard, at all,” Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel said of his offensive struggles. “I know for a fact that I play a part in the whole thing.”

A changing tide could await the Dolphins in October. The squad will have a bye week after facing the Colts on Sunday, and Tagovailoa could return as early as Oct. 27 against the Cardinals.

A slow start isn’t a complete death sentence and the Lombardi Trophy isn’t handed out until February. There’s plenty of football left for both the slow starters and the early surprises.

“It’s early in the season, so we’ll have to finish the year,” Quinn said. “I can’t put anything on it, but I know teams look at us and say, ‘Hey, those guys play hard.’”