OPINION:
Republicans will control the Senate after the Nov. 5 election. The question is, will it be with 51 senators, or as many as 58?
Sen. Joe Manchin III, West Virginia independent, is not running for reelection largely because he would not win. In 2000, I remember Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin being battleground states.
Interestingly, West Virginia is now solidly Republican, Washington is reliably Democratic and my home state is still a battleground. West Virginia’s Republican governor, Jim Justice, who previously switched parties and sailed to reelection, will easily win the election as the new senator from the Mountain State.
In Montana, Democratic Sen. Jon Tester has consistently defied the odds in a state that consistently votes Republican for president. Now, former Navy SEAL and businessman Tim Sheehy is poised to defeat the three-term incumbent in what has become a very expensive Senate race. Republican Gov. Greg Gianforte broke the previous lock on the statehouse. It appears Montana will go the route of West Virginia.
Pundits wondered why former President Donald Trump held rallies in California, Montana and New York. Well, he has learned a thing or two about campaigning. His visit to Montana helped move Mr. Sheehy into a strong position. Key congressional races in California and New York could determine who holds the majority in the House come January.
Assuming Rick Scott wins in Florida and Ted Cruz wins in Texas, Republicans will have at least 51 Senate seats in January. Democrats talk a big game about both races, but each of these states has become reliably red. If Mr. Trump does well in the battlegrounds, several GOP candidates could rise to victory in November.
In my home state, Eric Hovde can win. He is a successful business leader who can articulate real plans to improve the economy and lower prices. His opponent, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin, went to Washington more than a quarter-century ago. She has lost touch with the people of Wisconsin. The polls have this race tightening, and national Republicans have started investing in television ads — a clear sign that the numbers are moving in the right direction.
David McCormick has a career in public service and as a leader in finance and business. He has been running an aggressive campaign against Democratic Sen. Bob Casey in Pennsylvania. If Mr. Trump wins there, Mr. McCormick is in great shape to flip the seat. The polling average shows Mr. Trump up by three-tenths of a percentage point.
Bernie Moreno has one of the largest car dealerships in Ohio and has built name recognition over the years. He is running against a career politician who went to Washington more than 30 years ago and was first elected to office nearly 50 years ago. Mr. Trump will carry this state, and the polls have Mr. Moreno within the margin of error.
As Mr. Trump continues to make inroads in Michigan — where the polling average has him up by nine-tenths of a point — it positively affects the race for the Senate: Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin is facing a real battle against former Rep. Mike Rogers.
Mr. Trump holds a 1.1-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in Arizona and three-tenths of a point in Nevada. The Democratic candidate has a 6.5-point average advantage in Arizona polls, and the latest poll has her leading by 8 points in Nevada. Big wins by Mr. Trump could also move the needle in these Senate races.
In Maryland, Republican former Gov. Larry Hogan is running a strong campaign with a clear appeal to independent voters and discerning Democrats. That said, a race for governor is different from running for a Senate seat. Maryland voters appear to be returning to their historic trends, but another factor could play into the campaign. If Mr. Hogan can make the case that Republicans will win back the Senate, he might be able to persuade his voters to cast a ballot that gives them a voice in a new Senate majority.
Overall, Republicans are in a strong position this fall. The key is not taking the bait from their liberal opponents or the biased media to talk about issues that do not resonate with voters. A clear focus on prices and the economy, border security to stop the surge of fentanyl and other illegal drugs into our communities and plans to combat violent crime are the path to success for conservatives this year.
Democrats have an overwhelming financial advantage in the presidential race and most key House and Senate campaigns. Republicans have an advantage on the issues.
We need to focus on these points. Our supporters need to do more than attend rallies. We must knock on doors, make phone calls and write notes to undecided family members, friends, neighbors and co-workers. This is the key to success.
• Scott Walker is president of Young America’s Foundation and served as the 45th governor of Wisconsin from 2011 to 2019.
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