Catholic vote gives Trump an edge in swing states, says new polling

Catholic voters in most of the key swing states are giving former President Donald Trump a 5-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, according to a recently released poll from the National Catholic Reporter.

Mr. Trump is set to claim half of the Catholic vote overall in these states, while NCR data show that Ms. Harris will win 45%. The 5-point margin, in states considered too close to call by many pollsters, renders it a crucial factor in the election overall.

The NCR survey also indicates the Democratic presidential nominee will overwhelmingly secure the minority Catholic vote — nearly 70% of Hispanic Catholics and more than 75% of Black Catholics. 

In many key battleground states — such as Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — Catholics comprise a significant portion of the overall population. In Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, roughly 1 in 4 adults identify as Catholic, Pew data reports. 

In fact, these populations remain so sizable that both candidates have launched targeted efforts to attract the “Catholic vote,” reports say. 

Mr. Trump’s support is stronger among White Catholics who attend Mass at least once or twice a month, compared with those who attend less frequently, according to earlier data from Pew. 

Meanwhile, Ms. Harris’ dominance among Black and Hispanic Catholics is reportedly driven by shared values on immigration and social justice, as well as broad opposition to Mr. Trump’s policies.

With three weeks until Election Day, economic concerns top the list for Catholic voters. Three-fourths of them cite the economy as the primary issue on their minds, followed by immigration and health care. 

Indeed, NCR reports that Mr. Trump’s backers are drawn to his economic and immigration policies, while Ms. Harris’ supporters say they prioritize reproductive rights — despite the fact that their respective viewpoints clash with Catholic doctrine. 

And Ms. Harris drew derision from many Catholics after her campaign announced her plans to skip the 79th annual Alfred E. Smith Memorial Foundation Dinner on Thursday, breaking a four-decade tradition of bipartisan attendance at the Catholic charity event in New York. 

Cardinal Timothy Dolan, archbishop of New York, expressed disappointment over Ms. Harris’ planned absence. “We were looking forward to giving the vice president an enthusiastic welcome … This hasn’t happened in 40 years,” the cardinal said in a press conference. 

Ms. Harris’ team told media that she has chosen to focus on campaigning in battleground states instead of attending the dinner. For his part, Mr. Trump has confirmed his RSVP for the white-tie event.

Meanwhile, Pope Francis has not thrown his support to either U.S. presidential candidate. In fact, the pontiff has publicly ripped into both Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris for what he called anti-life policies on abortion and migration. The pope simply told American Catholics to pick whichever candidate they deem the “lesser evil” in the upcoming election.

“Both are against life, be it the one who kicks out migrants or the one who (supports) killing babies,” the pontiff said. “Both are against life.”

Catholic voters polled by NCR retain a complex disposition toward the matter of abortion. The poll shows a split among Catholics in swing states: 51% consider themselves anti-abortion, and 45% support Mr. Trump’s recent shift toward a more lenient position, including his promise to veto a national abortion ban. Meanwhile, 58% believe abortion should stay legal.

In 2020, the Catholic vote was split right down the middle — half backed Mr. Trump, while the other half rallied behind President Biden, only the second Catholic to ever sit in the Oval Office.