Kamala Harris, Donald Trump and their running mates all set foot in Arizona in the past five days. So did first lady Jill Biden. Former President Barack Obama plans to visit this week.
The flurry of on-the-ground activity by Democrats and Republicans indicates the state is a toss-up, even though its economic and immigration challenges play to Mr. Trump’s strengths.
“It is still a close race in Arizona, and we know that because each of the four campaign principles are coming here in one week,” said Republican Party strategist Barrett Marson.
The dynamic is helping calm the nerves of Democrats, who are concerned about Mr. Trump’s strength in Pennsylvania and the other “blue wall” states, which have been crucial to the party’s success in presidential elections but supported Mr. Trump in 2016.
With Pennsylvania, Ms. Harris’ electoral map becomes more manageable. She must piece together wins in swing states such as Georgia and North Carolina without it.
A Wall Street Journal survey shows Ms. Harris has paths to victory across the Sun Belt, which could help offset possible disappointment in the Rust Belt.
SEE ALSO: Kamala Harris appeals to Arizona Republicans in new ad
Mr. Trump was more trusted to handle the economy, inflation, rising prices, immigration and border security.
Ms. Harris received higher marks on housing affordability, health care and the question of who “cares about people like you.”
The survey also showed that an overwhelming majority of voters are pessimistic about the direction of the national economy, but that doesn’t transfer to the state level. A majority of Arizonans are happy with their state economy.
Mr. Trump was considered the more “extreme” candidate.
Ms. Harris told voters in Phoenix last week that she is focused on bringing down the cost of living, investing in small businesses and fighting to “protect reproductive freedom.” Mr. Trump “is only focused on himself,” she said.
“Well, folks, it is time to turn the page,” said Ms. Harris. “America is ready for a new way forward and ready for a new optimistic generation of leadership for our country, which is why Arizona Democrats, Republicans and independents are supporting our campaign.”
SEE ALSO: Early voting in Arizona kicks campaigns into overdrive
At a rally in Prescott on Sunday, Mr. Trump vowed to “rescue” the state from Ms. Harris’ “reign of terror.”
“We are going to usher in a new Golden Age of American success for the citizens of every race, religion, color, and creed,” Mr. Trump said. “What Kamala and her radical left cronies have done to the state of Arizona is a crime that can never be forgiven.”
He promised to impose the death penalty on illegal immigrants who kill Americans and vowed to give Border Patrol agents a raise and bonuses. The National Border Patrol Council endorsed his campaign.
“For four straight years, she has imported an army of illegal alien gang members and migrant criminals from the dungeons all over the world,” Mr. Trump said of Ms. Harris. “She has settled them into your communities to prey upon innocent American people.”
Brian Seitchik, the Trump campaign’s Arizona state director in 2016 and regional political director in 2020, said the race in Arizona boils down to voters’ views of the former president.
“Harris has no control over her destiny in Arizona,” he said. “It will simply be a referendum on Donald Trump.”
Arizona, arguably more than any other state, symbolizes the Trump era of American politics.
In 2016, Mr. Trump carried the state by more than 3 percentage points over Hillary Clinton, and the Arizona Republican Party — much like the national party — underwent a MAGA makeover.
The party adopted Mr. Trump’s populist brand of politics and his criticism of mail-in and early voting. Republicans had promoted and benefited from these election tools for years.
The approach scared away some suburban Republicans and helped President Biden win the state in 2020 by fewer than 11,500 votes.
Arizona has since been ground zero for Mr. Trump’s stolen election claims, and the party has fallen short in high-profile gubernatorial and Senate campaigns.
Mr. Trump now has a prime opportunity to reverse course.
Republicans in the state say a lot of voters, including anti-Trump Republicans, were more enamored with Mr. Biden than they are with Ms. Harris because they fear she is too liberal.
The state also suffered from some of the worst inflation in the nation under the Biden-Harris administration and has been on the front lines of the fight over illegal immigration.
“Trump is in a better position than he was at this point in 2020,” said Mike Noble, head of Noble Predictive Insights, an Arizona-based pollster.
Mr. Nobile highlighted Mr. Trump’s improved standing among the state’s Hispanic electorate.
A New York Times/Sienna poll showed Ms. Harris up in Pennsylvania and down in Arizona. The Democratic edge among Hispanics dropped from 62% in 2020 to 56% this month, while their support for Republicans held steady around 37%.
Ms. Harris is locked in a dead heat with Mr. Trump, to the shock of some who say she is facing severe political headwinds.
Republicans say the race remains fluid because Mr. Trump has not won back the college-educated Republican voters who quit supporting him after 2016. They also fear the Trump campaign’s outsourcing of get-out-the-vote operations could cost him.
The Wall Street Journal survey found Ms. Harris, who led by 2 percentage points in Arizona, had done more to solidify her support among Democrats, with 96% backing her compared with 88% of Republicans backing Mr. Trump.
Ms. Harris is hoping for a strong showing among women and young voters. These blocs are expected to support a ballot measure to enshrine abortion rights in the Arizona Constitution.
They also wonder whether Ms. Harris benefits from Kari Lake’s Trump-inspired bid for the U.S. Senate against Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego, who has consistently polled ahead in the race.
Mr. Gallego has been airing a television ad featuring footage of Ms. Lake bragging, “We drove a stake through the heart of the McCain machine.”
John McCain, the late Republican senator from Arizona, feuded with Mr. Trump. For Democrats, the rift has come to epitomize the Republican Party divide over Mr. Trump.
• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.
Please read our comment policy before commenting.