WATCH: Republicans in position to capture Senate majority

Republicans are favored to win just enough seats to reverse the Democrats’ 51-49 majority on Nov. 5 and take back control of the Senate.

The chamber, however, is expected to remain narrowly divided.

“Republicans are the clear favorite at this point to win the Senate, just in the map,” Jessica Taylor, who analyzes Senate races for The Cook Political Report, told The Washington Times.

Senators serve six-year terms, and a third of the chamber is up for election this year. The 2024 map started tough for Democrats, who must defend far more competitive seats than Republicans — including in the conservative states of Montana, Ohio and West Virginia.

Sen. Joe Manchin III, who caucuses with Democrats but has switched his affiliation to independent, is retiring rather than suffer a likely defeat to popular West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice, a Republican.

Democrats have written off that state as they desperately try to defend Sens. Jon Tester in Montana and Sherrod Brown in Ohio.

With the vice president casting the tiebreaking Senate vote, Republicans need to win the White House and pick up one seat — or pick up two seats — to take the majority.

Montana and Ohio are “by far the lowest hanging fruit” as Republicans seek an outright majority, and most of the campaign spending has been directed toward those races, said Jacob Rubashkin, deputy editor of Inside Elections.

AdImpact, a company that tracks political advertising, said total spending on Senate races surpassed $2 billion last week.

The five most expensive Senate races are Ohio ($463 million), Pennsylvania ($319 million), Montana ($265 million), Wisconsin ($183 million) and Michigan ($164 million).

Pennsylvania topped Montana partly because advertising reservations cost more in the Philadelphia metropolitan area than in Billings, for example. The Republican Senate candidate in Pennsylvania, Dave McCormick, former CEO of the world’s largest hedge fund, brought in a lot of money through his financial connections.

The spending reflects Republicans’ five best flip opportunities, but not in the same order.

“Montana is the tipping point state for the majority,” said Ms. Taylor, noting that it is increasingly more difficult for Democrats to hold.

The Republican candidate in Montana, aerospace millionaire Tim Sheehy, overtook Mr. Tester, a three-term incumbent, in the polls this summer and has since expanded his lead.

A New York Times/Siena College poll released on Thursday showed Mr. Sheehy with a 7-percentage-point advantage over Mr. Tester, consistent with other polls.

“Jon Tester is no stranger to tough races. He has a strong record of delivering for Montana and a coalition of support across the state, including independent voters and Republicans, which is why Montanans are going to reelect him in November,” Tester campaign spokesperson Monica Robinson said in a statement.

Democrats hope that coalition, and a ballot referendum to enshrine the right to abortion in the state’s constitution, will propel the incumbent to victory.

They are also counting on help from a slew of bad headlines about Mr. Sheehy, including a report about the Republican candidate making derogatory remarks about American Indians being drunk at 8 a.m.

Still, Mr. Tester is unlikely to continue to defy “political gravity,” Ms. Taylor said.

“With a state that [former President Donald] Trump won by 16 points, it’s just very hard to outrun the top of the ticket by that much,” she said.

The Senate race in Ohio, a state Mr. Trump won by 8 points in 2020, is another prime opportunity for Republicans but is considered a toss-up.

Mr. Brown, the three-term incumbent, has a 2.6-point advantage over Republican candidate Bernie Moreno, according to Real Clear Polling’s average of recent polls. A Washington Post poll released Thursday showed him with an even narrower 1-point lead.

The nearly $400 million in political advertising spent or reserved for Ohio’s Senate race makes it the second most expensive nonpresidential contest on record after the 2020 Senate race in Georgia, according to AdImpact.

“Ohio looked a lot better for Democrats over the summer,” Mr. Rubashkin said. “There has been a lot of spending in the intervening couple of months, especially from the cryptocurrency group Fair Shake, and that has helped Bernie Moreno close the gap considerably.”

Mr. Moreno is underperforming in Ohio compared with Mr. Sheehy in Montana.

Mr. Brown has made abortion rights a focal point of his campaign. He hopes that will sway some pro-choice independents and Republicans to his side. Last fall, Ohio approved a constitutional amendment guaranteeing abortion rights in a 57% to 43% vote.

Republicans have other opportunities to flip seats, but Democrats are performing better outside conservative states.

Democratic Senate candidates outperform Vice President Kamala Harris in five presidential swing states: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada.

Some of that gap is narrowing, especially in the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

In Nevada and Arizona, Democrats have held on to more of their advantage, which Ms. Taylor attributed to Democrats’ financial edge and Republican candidate quality.

Democrats hold Senate seats in four swing states, but only three are running for reelection: Sens. Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin, Robert P. Casey Jr. in Pennsylvania and Jacky Rosen in Nevada. Arizona is represented by Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, a Democrat turned independent.

Ms. Sinema changed her party affiliation after rumblings of a primary challenge from Rep. Ruben Gallego, Arizona Democrat. A few months after he officially filed, Ms. Sinema announced she would not seek reelection.

With Ms. Sinema out of the picture, Mr. Gallego faces a much easier path to victory against his Republican opponent, Kari Lake. Ms. Taylor called her a “very polarizing figure.”

“She brought a lot of baggage from that 2022 gubernatorial race and continues to contest the results,” Ms. Taylor said.

Mr. Gallego has a 6.8-point lead in the polls, according to Real Clear Polling’s average.

Another House Democrat, Rep. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, is running to fill an open Senate seat. Sen. Debbie Stabenow, a Democrat, is retiring. Ms. Slotkin has an average lead of 1.8 points over the Republican candidate, former Rep. Mike Rogers, according to Real Clear Polling.

Of the three incumbents, Ms. Rosen is faring the best, with a 7.5 average polling lead over Republican candidate Sam Brown. Real Clear Polling’s averages show Mr. Casey with a 3.9-point lead over Mr. McCormick and Ms. Baldwin with a 3.4-point advantage over Republican Eric Hovde.

Republicans are targeting one liberal-leaning state. The party recruited former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan to run for the seat of retiring Sen. Benjamin L. Cardin, a Democrat.

Despite winning statewide contests, Mr. Hogan trails his Democratic opponent, Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, by nearly 10 points.

Given the Republicans’ all but guaranteed victory in West Virginia and eight other opportunities across the map where they need only one, the party has projected confidence about winning the majority.

Still, Senate Democrats are not giving up.

They have pledged to spend millions of dollars on long-shot races in Texas and Florida as their prospects in Montana dim.

Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Rick Scott of Florida, who won in their previous elections by thin margins, are underperforming Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump in the polls.

The Democratic candidate in Texas, Rep. Colin Allred, has gained ground but trails by an average of 4.8 points, according to Real Clear Polling.

“Allred is trying to do something that no Democrat has done in 30 years, win statewide in Texas, so he’s got an uphill climb,” Mr. Rubashskin said.

In Florida, Mr. Scott leads former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell by roughly 4 percentage points, but a recent Siena College poll showed the incumbent with a dominant 9-point lead.

A Florida ballot referendum to guarantee abortion access up until the viability of the fetus could drum up support for Ms. Mucarsel-Powell.

“If you’re on the wrong side of 68% of the people, many of them who are highly motivated to turn out on that issue, that’s not a good thing,” said Sen. Gary C. Peters of Michigan, who chairs the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

Republicans are also facing a possible upset in Nebraska, where no Democrat is on the ballot.

Although the Republican Party has controlled Nebraska’s Senate delegation for more than a decade, Sen. Deb Fischer is locked in a tight race with Dan Osborn, an independent who has said he will not caucus with either party.

Polling of the race has been limited, but an Independent Center poll this month showed Mr. Osborn ahead of Ms. Fischer 47% to 42%.

Mr. Osborn and his allies have spent $4.7 million on ads, compared with the $2 million that Ms. Fischer and Republican groups have spent, according to AdImpact. Most of the independent’s financial bump comes from outside groups. The super PAC Retire Career Politicians, with ties to a dark money group called the Sixteen Thirty Fund, has spent $3 million to support Mr. Osborn.

Senate Republicans have responded by reserving more than a half million dollars in ads to support Ms. Fischer.

Looking at the map, Ms. Taylor predicts a net gain of one to four Republican seats. Mr. Rubashkin forecasts one to three.

Democrats have an outside shot of holding the majority, but they must either win all eight seats they are defending outside of West Virginia or match losses in one or two with pickups in Texas and Florida.

“It’s not an easy path, but it’s not an impossible one either,” Mr. Rubashkin said. “The pieces are all there.”