OPINION:
On Sept. 13, North Korea announced the visit of its leader, Kim Jong Un, to a secret site to produce weapons-grade uranium. Pictures showed Mr. Kim surrounded by centrifuges, stating that North Korea would “exponentially increase the production of nuclear weapons … for greater defense and preemptive attack capabilities.”
The U.S. has known since 2000 that North Korea had a secret program to produce highly enriched uranium for nuclear weapons. In 2002, the U.S. informed the leaders in Pyongyang that their secret uranium-enrichment program violated the 1994 Agreed Framework, which committed North Korea to freeze its nuclear program at Yongbyon and the construction of nuclear reactors for nuclear weapons in return for two proliferation-resistant nuclear power reactor for civilian energy.
North Korea has repeatedly denied having a secret uranium-enrichment program in the 30 years of negotiations that produced the 1994 Agreed Framework, the Six-Party Talks Joint statement of 2005 and the 2018 Summit Agreement between then-President Donald Trump and Mr. Kim.
The 2019 leadership summit in Hanoi, Vietnam, ended with no agreement because Mr. Kim refused to disclose the existence of North Korea’s secret uranium-enrichment sites. This was unfortunate but not surprising because North Korea thought it could pretend to abandon its nuclear weapons program in return for the eventual normalization of relations with the U.S. while retaining a secret nuclear weapons capability.
It appears that Mr. Kim has given up on his goal of normalizing relations with the U.S. He now realizes that he must verifiably dismantle all nuclear weapons and programs, including his uranium-enrichment program, if normalization of relations with the U.S. is North Korea’s ultimate objective. Mr. Kim has made a strategic decision: Retaining and producing more nuclear weapons is more important than normal relations with the U.S.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently declared that “denuclearizing North Korea is a closed issue as it understands North Korea’s logic that nuclear weapons are a foundation of its defense.” He went on to say that Russia will stand with North Korea in resisting what he said the U.S. portrays as expanded nuclear deterrence with South Korea and Japan.
The irony in these comments from Mr. Lavrov is profound. Russia was part of the Six-Party Talks with North Korea from 2003 to 2009 and with China was a voice calling for North Korea to abandon all nuclear weapons and programs.
But now, after Russia invaded Ukraine and is subjected to international sanctions, it needs material support from countries such as China, North Korea and Iran. And in this case, Russia apparently was prepared not only to accept North Korea as a nuclear weapons state but also to potentially aid North Korea with its nuclear, missile, satellite and conventional programs.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine in 2022 has been a disaster. Ukraine has taken the city of Kursk in Russia. Despite Russia’s advances in the eastern front in Ukraine, Russian casualties are nearly 1,200 each day, with estimates of overall Russian casualties exceeding 500,000.
These figures far exceed the casualties the Soviet Union suffered in Afghanistan after its invasion in 1979. It was not only the casualties in Afghanistan but also the Soviet public’s disgust with the war that was killing so many of its people and the expense that added to the Soviet Union’s eventual bankruptcy.
Mr. Putin will eventually have to answer to the people for this tragic act of aggression against a sovereign, independent Ukraine. The key is for Ukraine to remain resilient and get the support it needs from the U.S. and the European Union. Hopefully, there will be a cease-fire and an end to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But it should be on terms amenable to Kyiv, not dictated by Moscow.
When the war in Ukraine ends, Russia will no longer need North Korean artillery and missiles and will likely be unable to provide North Korea with meaningful energy and food support. That’s when North Korea will again rely on China — committed to the complete and verifiable denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula — in efforts to retain China’s economic lifeline for the energy, food and trade necessary for its survival.
It will also be a time for North Korea to normalize relations with the United States — conditioned on complete and verifiable denuclearization — and be part of the family of nations, with the eventual lifting of sanctions and economic development assistance from the global community.
• Joseph R. DeTrani served as special envoy for the Six-Party Talks with North Korea from 2003 to 2006 and as director of the National Counterproliferation Center. The views expressed here are the author’s and not those of any government agency or department.
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