The house doesn’t always win.
Sports betting platform DraftKings is expecting less revenue for the year after players had a series of betting victories on NFL games to start the fourth quarter of 2024.
In August, before the pro football season began, DraftKings was expected to bring in $5.05 billion to $5.25 billion in fiscal 2024. After what it called “customer-friendly sport outcomes early in the fourth quarter,” the company is now expecting $4.85 billion to $4.95 billion, the company said Thursday in its release of third-quarter results.
DraftKings’ stock responded by rising 3% Friday.
Favorites winning straight up or covering spreads, along with more prominent players scoring touchdowns and putting up good stats for prop bets, tend to be good for customers who bet those more often, DraftKings CEO Jason Robins told analysts on a conference call Friday, according to Front Office Sports.
Conversely, “when you’re seeing the backup tight ends and running backs get into the end zone and low-scoring games where the underdogs are winning, that’s good for the house,” Mr. Robins said.
Betting favorites have done well against the spread this NFL season, covering 74 times, according to Covers.com. The underdogs, meanwhile, have covered 61 times, with four pushes. Favorites did even better on straight-up win-loss moneyline bets, winning 97 times versus 42 upsets.
This doesn’t mean DraftKings is in dire straits. Its third-quarter revenue of just over $1 billion represented a 39% year-over-year increase compared with the third quarter of 2023, and it’s expecting to make $6.2 billion to $6.6 billion in 2025, which would be 31% greater than its expected 2024 revenue.
The 2025 revenue projection doesn’t factor in the legalization of sports betting in Missouri as a result of a ballot initiative Tuesday.
• Brad Matthews can be reached at bmatthews@washingtontimes.com.
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