A major industry group says ports will see a flood of imports through the end of the year as retailers brace for another port strike and try to get ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s looming tariffs.
The National Retail Federation said that while East and Gulf Coast dockworkers suspended a three-day strike ahead of the election, a longer impasse could follow when that deal expires in mid-January.
“And we’re hearing that some merchants will also move up shipments to avoid the costly tariff increases expected after Donald Trump returns to the White House,” Jonathan Gold, the NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy, said Friday. “Neither of these developments is good for retailers, their customers or the economy.”
Mr. Trump has threatened to impose sweeping tariffs on imports from other countries, which he says will force companies to set up factories and manufacture goods in America.
He’s floated up to 60% tariffs on Chinese goods and said he will impose a levy of at least 25% on Mexican goods unless President Claudia Sheinbaum reins in the flow of illegal migration across the U.S. southern border.
Mr. Trump also says the levies can pay for an array of U.S. programs, though economists say consumers will ultimately bear the cost of tariffs in the form of higher prices.
The NRF estimates new tariffs could increase consumer prices by as much as $78 billion per year.
“We are witnessing elections around the world where discontent is leading to inward-looking policies that threaten trade with the almost certain potential for increasing tariffs,” said Ben Hackett, a shipping industry consultant and founder of Hackett Associates. “In the United States, this is particularly true with the election of Donald Trump, but it is not much different in Europe, with the [European Union] calling for tariffs to be applied to a growing number of products from China.”
The NRF pointed to estimates from Global Port Tracker that show increases in port activity during the last three months of the year that will bring the total 2024 volume to 13.5% above 2013 levels.
The federation said those estimates reflect only the prospect of another dock worker strike and haven’t been revised after the election. Mr. Trump won a landslide victory against Vice President Kamala Harris on Tuesday.
The Biden administration and others scrambled in October to head off the possibility of a long dockworker strike. Negotiations are slated to resume next week to avoid a longer impasse in January.
• Tom Howell Jr. can be reached at thowell@washingtontimes.com.
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