How and why Trump won

OPINION:

Near the end of election night, many reporters asked the same question as it became clear that former President Donald Trump was completing his epic political comeback with a resounding victory over Vice President Kamala Harris.

“Did the campaign see this coming?” they wanted to know.

The truth was that internal polling had shown Mr. Trump with the lead in all seven battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — for most of the final month of the race. The Trump campaign even released a memo on Oct. 10 to highlight the situation.

Reporters are used to campaigns blowing smoke, but there was internal confidence that if the numbers were correct, there was a real possibility that Mr. Trump would clinch a significant victory that would be apparent early.  

The numbers were indeed correct.

With his massive win, Mr. Trump completed a major realignment of the Republican Party and assembled a coalition so broad that it has probably never existed before.

Mr. Trump won the backing of Muslim imams and Arabs in Michigan, made inroads among Jewish voters, attracted historic support from Black and Hispanic voters and did better among women than expected. Significant numbers of union workers supported him. He won a majority of male voters and had conservatives and traditional Republicans in the fold as well.

No presidential candidate from either party has assembled such a diverse set of constituencies in a long time — if ever — and it resulted in a popular vote win by a margin of about 5 million.

Americans from varying backgrounds backed Mr. Trump because of what he talked about in the campaign. He made specific pledges about repairing the broken economy, attacking inflation and securing the southern border, just as he had done while in office. These aligned perfectly with what voters told pollsters they cared about throughout the campaign.

A unique figure in the history of American politics, Mr. Trump created a true movement in which love of country and support of core American principles are of great importance. “Make America Great Again” is more than a slogan (although it is probably the greatest political slogan of all time). It’s a rallying call for returning to American exceptionalism. 

As the economy suffered, as inflation bit into take-home pay and as people saw that illegal aliens had been prioritized to the detriment of citizens, millions felt that their government had forgotten them. But Mr. Trump, a billionaire real estate mogul, bestselling author and television star, has always been able to connect with everyday people and let them know that he understands their plight.

It’s one of his superpowers, and people respond by embracing him. He becomes their champion, the one who can fight the big battles on behalf of large numbers of people and someone who will never leave them behind. 

He prevailed despite a nine-year effort by Democrats and their media allies to attack him as their central strategy — all day, every day — with hoaxes, rhetoric, impeachments, lawsuits, prosecutions and convictions. Twice, deranged individuals tried to kill him, and one almost succeeded.

Over those nine years, his opponents tried to make it a mark of shame to support him. They tried to drive MAGA into the shadows and attach professional and social consequences to being pro-Trump. And though a lot of attention was paid to Mr. Trump’s visit to make fries and work the drive-thru window at a McDonald’s in suburban Philadelphia, the crowd outside told the story of the campaign.

Over 10,000 people lined the streets in a spontaneous display of support for the man, who spoke deafeningly about the failure of the Democrats’ strategy. If those people had ever felt any reluctance to proclaim their support for Mr. Trump, it had disappeared, and there was a wave of pent-up enthusiasm being let loose — there and across the country.

One thing the left and the media have never understood is that Mr. Trump’s supporters view attacks on him as attacks on themselves. They defend him because they know he defends them. They can feel his sincerity on the issues that matter and remember what he did when he was president.

So yes, Mr. Trump’s advisers knew it was a distinct possibility that he would win big, and that best-case scenario happened. The same can be said for the United States, because the nation also got the best possible result.  

• Tim Murtaugh served as a senior adviser on the 2024 Trump campaign and as communications director on the 2020 Trump campaign.