Senate Republicans prepare to pick a new leader for new majority

Senate Republicans, fresh off winning the majority, will pick a new leader next week in a three-way race that could stir up some discord at what should be a unifying moment. 

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell is stepping down from leadership, creating the first opening in the top post in 18 years. 

Three candidates are running to replace him: Sens. John Thune of South Dakota, John Cornyn of Texas and Rick Scott of Florida. 

All have served in at least one leadership post. Mr. Thune is the current Republican whip and previously chaired the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee; Mr. Cornyn was the previous Republican whip and spent the 2010 and 2012 election cycles as head of the party’s campaign arm; and Mr. Scott led the campaign arm in the 2022 cycle. 

In making their choice, Senate Republicans will have to decide how much of a change they’re looking for and which candidate can deliver it. 

They’ll have an opportunity to question the candidates in a forum Tuesday evening hosted by Sen. Mike Lee, Utah Republican. 

The leadership election will be held Wednesday morning and is conducted by secret ballot. Only Republicans returning in the next Congress, as well as incoming first-term lawmakers, can vote. 

To win, a candidate needs to secure a simple majority of the 52 or more Republicans who will make up the conference next year (three Senate races remained uncalled Wednesday). If none of the three contenders can reach that threshold on the first ballot, the lowest vote-getter will be dropped and a second ballot will be held to determine the winner.

Most senators have not said who they plan to support, with only three public endorsements in the race so far. 

Sens. Mike Rounds of South Dakota and Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma endorsed Mr. Thune back in the spring. 

Mr. Scott has the support of Wisconsin GOP Sen. Ron Johnson, who in a Fox Business interview Monday called his colleague from Florida an “extraordinary individual” who was a “highly successful” governor and businessman.

“He’s serious,” Mr. Johnson said. “I think President [Donald] Trump, hopefully, will endorse Rick, want to work with Rick, because President Trump wants to do big things. We need bold leadership in the Senate. And Rick Scott can provide that leadership.”

President-elect Donald Trump has not yet weighed in — other than to express his satisfaction that Mr. McConnell will no longer be in charge — and it is unclear if he will. The Washington Times reached out to the Trump campaign for comment. 

While Mr. Trump backed Mr. Scott’s challenge to Mr. McConnell two years ago, Mr. Thune and Mr. Cornyn both believe they have good relationships with the president-elect as well. Mr. Trump has criticized both in the past for accepting the 2020 presidential election results, but seemingly hasn’t maintained any grudges with them like he has with Mr. McConnell. 

Mr. Cornyn, who spent time on the trail with the former president in Texas and Nevada last month, has touted his record as Republican whip working with Mr. Trump during his first administration to pass the 2017 tax cut package, the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement and managing confirmation processes for conservative Supreme Court Justices Neil M. Gorsuch and Brett M. Kavanaugh.

“I am looking forward to continuing to serve our nation working hand in glove with him and my Republican colleagues to kick-start his administration and make America great again by making the Senate work again,” Mr. Cornyn said in a statement on Mr. Trump winning a second term.

Mr. Thune has been keeping lines of communication open with Mr. Trump, meeting with him at Mar-a-Lago in March and speaking several times since, including last week. He also met with members of the Trump transition team in September.

“The incoming Senate Republican majority will work hand-in-hand with the Trump-Vance administration to lower costs for families, secure our southern border, and renew America’s energy dominance,” Mr. Thune said in a statement after the election was called in their favor. “The work begins now.”

While conventional wisdom shows Mr. Scott as the underdog in the race, he has projected confidence he can win, citing his colleagues’ appetite for a new regime that will deconcentrate power out of the leadership suites.

“We have so many smart Republican senators. And what we’ve had is a complete dictatorship under Mitch McConnell. So they want change,” Mr. Scott said in a Fox Business interview earlier this week.

If Mr. Trump were to endorse in the GOP leader race, it may carry limited influence because senators can keep their votes secret and are more likely to be influenced by their long-standing relationships with the candidates than anything else.

“I’m not interested in outsiders’ recommendations on who I pick. This is somebody that’s going to govern our body,” Sen. Thom Tillis, North Carolina Republican, told The Washington Times. “If you’re not a member of the Senate, then you can’t possibly know them the way I know them.”

When the Senate last gathered in September, Mr. Tillis said he had narrowed his choice to “a guy named John,” but he hadn’t decided between Mr. Thune and Mr. Cornyn.

While relationships are certainly the driving factor in leadership races, other elements come into play, like fundraising and supporting colleagues in their campaigns.

Mr. Scott is at somewhat of a disadvantage there, because he has spent this cycle investing most of his time and money running his own competitive reelection race, while Mr. Thune and Mr. Cornyn have been able to share their resources with colleagues.

Mr. Thune raised $31 million for the 2024 cycle, and Mr. Cornyn had raised $26 million as of the end of September. Both totals reported include contributions to their leadership PACs that they use to funnel disbursements, as well as direct fundraising for candidates and the National Republican Senatorial Committee, but how campaigns count money raised can still vary.

Both Mr. Thune and Mr. Cornyn have campaigned with or raised money for Republican candidates Bernie Moreno and Tim Sheehy, who flipped Democratic-held seats Tuesday in Ohio and Montana.

Mr. Moreno told The Times last month that he would not make a decision on who to back in the leadership race until hearing from all the candidates after the general election on their plans for running the Senate.

While the choice may be difficult for candidates who have limited experience with the leadership contenders, it’s even tougher for senators who’ve served alongside them for years.

Sen. Jerry Moran said leadership races are always challenging because it forces senators to choose between friends. The Kansas Republican said he will be looking for a variety of characteristics in picking Mr. McConnell’s successor, including “integrity, ability to lead, capability of communicating, doing well in front of a camera, consensus, pulling people together, relationships.”

Other senators described a similar dilemma in picking between the three candidates.

“I’ve got three really good friends who are running for leader, and I think that each one of them would be a really good leader,” said Sen. Mike Crapo, Idaho Republican. “So I just got to make a tough choice.”