Republicans will hold Senate majority but still need Democrats’ help on most bills

Republicans will control the Senate next Congress with a majority of 52 to 54 seats, depending how outstanding races in Pennsylvania and Nevada fall, but they will still need to work with Democrats to get things done.

GOP leaders and their conference have made clear they plan to keep the legislative filibuster, which will require them to get 60 votes to pass most legislation.

If Republicans hold the House — which most in the party believe will happen — they will have an opportunity to pass tax and spending legislation with a simple majority vote in the Senate using the filibuster-proof budget reconciliation process.

This is how the GOP passed its 2017 tax cut package under the first Trump administration, and it is also being eyed for a bill needed to renew several provisions set to expire next year.

One upside for Republicans in winning the Senate majority and the presidency is the ability to set up the party’s preferred administration and to stack the courts with conservative judges.

Most of President-elect Donald Trump’s nominees will be able to sail through since the filibuster no longer applies to executive and judicial confirmations. If Republicans agree with Mr. Trump’s choices, they can confirm them with a simple majority.  

But the legislative agenda and nominations were not top of mind for Republicans on Wednesday as they basked in their success across the electoral map.

Mr. Trump had a comfortable Electoral College victory and a likelihood, once the final votes are tallied in Arizona and Nevada, of claiming all seven of the swing states that consumed virtually the entire campaign.

Republican candidates ousted Democratic senators in the red states of Montana and Ohio and were in striking distance of defeating incumbents who had led polling in Pennsylvania and Nevada. And House Republicans have so far picked up more seats than they’ve lost.

“Frankly, this was, I believe, the greatest political movement of all time,” Mr. Trump said in his victory speech, crediting downballot Republicans for their efforts.

“America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate,” he said.

All but three Senate races had been called by Wednesday evening. Republicans had secured a minimum of a 52-seat majority, but were hoping for two more victories in Pennsylvania and Nevada.

In Pennsylvania, Republican Dave McCormick was leading Democratic Sen. Robert P. Casey by fourth-tenths of a percentage point, or 27,000 votes, with 98% of the state’s ballots counted.

Late Wednesday afternoon, Mr. McCormick’s campaign manager, Matt Gruda, posted on X that journalists should call the race for the Republican because almost all votes had been counted in the Democratic stronghold of Philadelphia, “outside of a handful of precincts and a few outstanding votes.”

Mr. McCormick “will be the next U.S. senator,” Mr. Gruda said.

Mr. Casey’s team was not conceding, however.

“We know there are tens of thousands of provisional ballots left to count. We are confident that once every legal ballot is counted, Senator Casey will be re-elected,” campaign spokeswoman Maddy McDaniel wrote on X.

In Nevada, Republican Sam Brown was ahead of Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen by three-tenths of a point with 85% of votes counted.

Jon Ralston, CEO and editor of the Nevada Independent, said Ms. Rosen would need to win outstanding mail-in ballots from Clark County, which contains Las Vegas and the majority of the state’s populace, by roughly a 2-1 margin to pull off a victory.

The other outstanding Senate race, in Arizona, is most likely to be won by Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego, who was leading Republican Kari Lake by 2.8 percentage points with 61% of votes counted.

But political consultants said Ms. Lake still had a narrow path to victory.

“We are closely watching as results come in, and we’re feeling very optimistic,” Mr. Gallego wrote on X.  

Democrats were disappointed but were celebrating their ability to hold on to a handful of seats given the tough Senate map this cycle that had them defending far more battleground states than Republicans.

A potential Gallego victory would bring the Democrats’ holds in heavily contested states to four, with their wins in Wisconsin, Michigan and Maryland.