Latino voters delivered big for the GOP this week, giving the party arguably its best-ever numbers at the presidential level and hinting at a lasting political realignment.
Presumptive President-elect Donald Trump scored somewhere between 41% and 45% of the Hispanic vote, and also seems to have improved among Black voters, particularly in crucial swing states. He solidified GOP margins in Florida and Texas, flipped Sunbelt and Rustbelt states he needed to secure the Electoral College win, and cut into Democratic leads in traditional blue strongholds.
In New York, which President Biden won by 23 percentage points in 2020, Mr. Trump trailed Vice President Kamala Harris by about a dozen points early Wednesday. He was about 5 points behind Ms. Harris in New Jersey, a state that went for Mr. Biden by about 16 points last time.
Mr. Trump was also leading in the popular vote Wednesday morning, though with millions of ballots still to be counted — many in deep-blue California — it is not clear whether he will emerge on top of that tally at the end.
The once and future president, in his victory speech, praised what he saw as a “historic realignment.”
“We’ve built the biggest, the broadest, the most unified coalition,” he said.
Mr. Trump had been pushing the GOP into new territory for the last decade, urging a focus on blue collar voters and urging younger voters to give him another look. Tuesday’s results bore that out.
Mr. Trump improved with voters under 30, cutting Democrats’ advantage by 5 points compared to 2020, and gained among voters 45 and older. He held steady among voters ages 30-44, roughly the millennial generation, according to CNN’s exit polling.
The Fox/AP survey showed Mr. Trump with a 10-point gain among under-30 voters and even gains among Millennials, while holding firm on those over 45.
The Latino shift is likely to draw intense scrutiny.
For most of this century, Republicans have argued that if they can crack the 40% mark with Hispanic voters, then they’re likely to win the White House.
One exit poll, conducted for CNN, ABC, NBC and CBS, showed 45% of Latino voters backed Mr. Trump. The other major election poll, conducted for The Associated Press and Fox News, showed Mr. Trump with 41% support among Hispanics.
That is arguably the best showing ever for a Republican candidate.
The previous modern high was President George W. Bush in 2004, when he got somewhere around 40% of the Hispanic vote.
Analysts have heatedly debated the exact figure, with the major exit poll at the time saying it was 44% but academics questioned the methodology, saying it oversampled GOP-friendly Cuban voters.
Mr. Trump drew just 28% support of Hispanics in his 2016 run and 32% in 2020, according to CNN’s exit polls.
Alfredo Ortiz, CEO of the Job Creators Network, said Hispanic voters powered Republican wins across the map Tuesday.
“Republicans’ stands on illegal immigration, the economy, small business, public safety, and defending faith resonated with Hispanic voters across America,” he said.
That included Mr. Trump winning almost every border county in Texas, including flipping heavily Hispanic regions in the state’s southern tip.
UnidosUS, a leading Latino group, said Hispanic voters went big for Ms. Harris in places like Pennsylvania while Mr. Trump led in Florida.
UnidosUS was part of a group of left-leaning organizations that sponsored their own election poll, including more than 3,600 Hispanic voters.
“The poll also revealed that Latino voters were driven to the polls by their concerns over pocketbook issues, including the cost of living, jobs and the economy, housing affordability and health care costs,” UnidosUS said.
Left out of that list was immigration — an issue where left-wing advocates had warned that Mr. Trump’s stance on strict enforcement might cost him support.
Mr. Trump, though, had said the border chaos hit Hispanic communities in the U.S. particularly hard.
The CNN exit poll showed Latinos at 12% of the electorate, down a point from 2020. Black voters fell from 13% to 11%. The White share, meanwhile, went from 67% to 71%
The Fox/AP election outcome survey put White voters at 75%, up slightly compared to 2020.
That survey showed Mr. Trump nearly doubling his support among Black voters to reach 15%. The CNN consortium’s polling showed him at 12% among Black voters, or about even with his 2020 showing.
• Stephen Dinan can be reached at sdinan@washingtontimes.com.
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