OPINION:
China’s ongoing dual-carrier operation marks yet another indicator of its navy’s growing operational capability. Although such operations are comparatively routine for the American, British and French navies, they are a new forward step for the People’s Liberation Army Navy and reflect Beijing’s intention to become a major maritime power.
Skeptics and threat deflators will assert legitimately that this first-time activity represents how much farther the Chinese navy must go to reach its goal. Still, realists recognize that with China, today’s advances have more to do with tomorrow’s intentions than today’s state of play. China’s military tends to advance incrementally but inexorably forward.
Dual-carrier operations are more complex than those of a single-carrier task group, and training and preparation are required to do them well. They require coordinated and centrally managed air and ocean space management to avoid misidentification, duplicative responses to emerging potential concerns and air and sea navigation safety.
Carrier operations are tied to the wind, which can be a fluid and inconsistent phenomenon. Formation and ship separation can address most of the resulting navigation safety issues, but flight operations are conducted at speeds above 25 knots and last 30 to 45 minutes.
That means 12 to 22 nautical miles of sea movement, and at those speeds, there is little time to correct mistakes in a single-carrier formation, much less when two are working together in the same sea and air space. Communications and sensor frequencies must be coordinated to avoid mutual interference. Those requirements add an added layer of complexity and coordination than single-carrier or noncarrier operations.
It takes time for naval crews and staff to master those skills. Western navies have 80 years of multi-carrier experience, refreshed regularly. China’s navy lacks that background but has observed and studied Western carrier operations for over 40 years. Its doctrine and procedures may be a work in progress today, but its commanders are preparing and practicing for the day when they can routinely do dual-carrier operations.
With that in mind, the Liaoning and Shandong carriers may work with Chinese air force units at some point in this evolution. But that may await a future dual-carrier deployment.
The ongoing dual-carrier operation’s timing is also significant, coming just 10 to 18 months before China’s first catapult assisted takeoff but arrested recovery, or CATOBAR, aircraft carrier, the Fujian, reaches full operational capability.
At least one more CATOBAR carrier is under construction and is expected to enter sea trials by late 2026. China’s navy is not yet ready to challenge a major naval power beyond what Western analysts call the first island chain (the Near Seas in Chinese naval documents). But it is preparing to do so. More importantly, it is taking a joint approach.
China’s rocket and air forces are also training to support its navy in maritime missions. The first priority appears to be directed at potential conflicts in the South China, East and Yellow seas. But it is apparent that China is preparing to challenge an enemy in the “Far Seas” (Western and potentially the central Pacific Ocean) by the end of the next decade.
• Carl O. Schuster is a retired U.S. Navy captain.
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