Vice President Kamala Harris and the Democrats are hoping they have done enough to tap into the pro-choice sentiment that has helped drive their success at the ballot box since the Supreme Court stripped away federal abortion protections.
The situation has imbued Democrats with a cautious optimism that Ms. Harris will be able to ride the issue — and the strong support of women — to victory over former President Donald Trump.
Mr. Trump has boasted about nominating three conservative Supreme Court justices who backed the decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization that stripped away the constitutional right to abortion.
“Do we really think the women of this country who have let out a primary rage at the ballot box since the Dobbs decision are going to pass on the chance to voice against the guy who allowed the Dobbs decision to happen?” said Joe Zepecki, a Wisconsin-based Democratic strategist. “I think it is crazy people are not thinking about the election this way.”
The Dobbs ruling in 2022 kicked the issue back to the states and dramatically changed the political landscape. So much so that Mr. Trump has distanced himself from pro-life leaders and groups who are fighting for stricter federal abortion laws.
“Everyone knows I would not support a federal abortion ban, under any circumstance, and would, in fact, veto it because it is up to the states to decide based on the will of the voters,” Mr. Trump said recently on social media. “Like Ronald Reagan before me, I fully support the three exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother.”
Mr. Trump also has sought to turn the tables on Democrats, accusing them of supporting “radical” late-term abortions.
The issue has been a political winner for Democrats.
It started after voters rejected a 2022 abortion referendum in the red state of Kansas by a 59% to 41% margin that would have amended the state constitution to say there is no constitutional right to abortion.
Democrats rode the blowback to victory again last year after Janet Protaswiecz defeated her conservative opponent, Dan Kelly, by 11 percentage points in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election. This gave Democrat-backed justices the majority on the state’s top court.
It was more of the same in Ohio, where voters approved a citizen-initiated constitutional amendment enshrining a right to abortion by a 57% to 43% margin.
Democrats and the pro-choice movement hope to keep the winning streak going Tuesday when 10 states — including the presidential battlegrounds of Arizona and Nevada — consider whether to follow suit.
Abortion rights groups have outspent anti-abortion groups by $161 million to $24 million, according to an Associated Press analysis.
Democrats want the issue to boost Ms. Harris and help her overcome the inroads Mr. Trump has made with critical parts of the Democratic coalition, including Hispanic voters.
“Prior to Dobbs, abortion was a winning issue for the GOP because they were able to mobilize their base behind it, but with the guardrail of Roe, a large share of soft abortion supporters did not worry about the issue much,” said Mark P. Jones, a political science professor at Rice University in Houston.
Mr. Jones said the issue is no longer “hypothetical” and has flipped on the GOP.
“The better Harris does, the more it suggests Republicans are on the wrong side of the abortion issue, and it would reinforce the argument that abortion is now a serious liability for the Republican Party.”
Mr. Rice said a Trump victory could embolden Republican-controlled state legislatures in places to adopt tighter abortion restrictions.
Ms. Harris delivered that message during a recent stop in Texas, where she warned Mr. Trump is the “architect” of the ruling that stripped away abortion rights, leaving women more vulnerable and opening up the prospect of abortion providers being thrown into prison.
“How dare he?” she said.
Mr. Trump and Republicans are betting voters will be more focused on the economy and immigration than they will be on abortion rights.
• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.
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