OPINION:
The greatest threat to President-elect Donald Trump’s new administration comes not from Democratic Party officials or Republicans who would have preferred a different nominee for their party. The biggest hindrance to a historically successful presidency — and a lasting realignment — comes from the president-elect’s most enthusiastic supporters.
Many of his loudest supporters mistakenly portray his recent victory as a landslide and demand that all elected Republicans fall in line. This creates an enormous problem for the president’s agenda because it positions his allies, including congressional leaders, as the enemy.
It is understandable why the president’s biggest fans display a bit of irrational exuberance. The presidential race was close, and going into Election Day, many were worried about the outcome. The decisive victory — which included a sweep of the seven swing states and a popular vote victory, the first for a GOP nominee since 2004 — naturally led to a well-deserved celebratory release of tension.
For those who want to keep winning, however, the time has come to stop celebrating and look carefully at where things stand. Only by realistically assessing the state of play can the administration achieve success for the American people and realign American politics along the Trump coalition lines.
On the positive side, it is significant that Mr. Trump won the popular vote. This happened because of his historic gains among Black and Hispanic voters. On top of that, Republicans won control of the Senate and kept control of the House in a strong showing.
But this election was no landslide. While the president-elect won the popular vote over Vice President Kamala Harris, he did not win a majority of the popular vote. In other words, just over half the voters cast their ballots for someone other than Mr. Trump. Only three times since 1888 has the winning candidate enjoyed a smaller popular vote margin of victory.
The evenly divided outcome was also highlighted in the results for the House of Representatives. The GOP retained control by a single-digit margin, creating a narrow balance of power. It’s the third time in a row that the House’s control has been decided by single digits. As Bruce Mehlman pointed out, the last time that happened was from 1789 to 1795 (those were the first three Congresses, with far fewer House members).
In addition, 2024 was the sixth election in a row in which at least one branch of government changed control. That’s never happened before in American history. If the new administration fails to deliver on key issues quickly, the 2026 midterms will become the seventh. That would leave the president facing a House controlled by Democrats for his last two years.
To avoid that fate, the president and his supporters must remember that the real opposition to their agenda comes from Democrats in Congress and the administrative state. They are the defenders of the status quo that Mr. Trump was elected to change. The administrative state has reportedly been working overtime to “Trump-proof” the federal government.
The only way to bring about the desired change is to begin with a realistic assessment of 2024. This was no landslide, and no political realignment has occurred yet. Defenders of the status quo still have significant power, and independent voters remain ready to change teams again if they’re disappointed. Ignoring what really happened on Nov. 5 is a recipe for disaster.
On the other hand, while far from a landslide, this decisive victory has provided Republicans with a great opportunity to launch a new chapter for their party and the nation. A disciplined and reality-based focus on the economy, border security and other campaign promises could pave the way for a lasting realignment and future landslide victory. It would transform the country and deliver a mandate for decades to come.
• Scott Rasmussen is a political analyst, president of RMG Research and founder of the Napolitan Institute.
Please read our comment policy before commenting.