China military now a ‘significant threat’ capable of winning in a conflict with U.S., says report

China’s military power poses an acute threat to the United States and Beijing’s forces could now potentially defeat the U.S. military in a future regional conflict, according to a congressional commission report made public Tuesday.

The report, based on both classified and unclassified information and hearings, also warned that Beijing is escalating tensions in the Indo-Pacific region against Japan, in addition to continued military pressure targeting Taiwan and the Philippines further south.

Two decades of large-scale military expansion by China focused on building large numbers of missiles, ships, aircraft and other systems for a future Indo-Pacific conflict, said the 793-page report by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.

“As a result, U.S. forces and bases in the region would face a significant threat from the [People’s Liberation Army] in any regional contingency involving treaty allies and/or security partners, and the outcome of any such conflict is far from certain,” the report states.

China’s communist leaders view the U.S. military bases and activities in the region as “hostile” and “threatening,” and have been preparing for a future U.S. intervention should China take military action against Taiwan or in the South China Sea.

In preparation for such a conflict, China’s military has significantly upgraded PLA’s command and control systems to find, target and attack U.S. forces and those of regional allies, using missiles and electronic warfare, the report said.

“China has significantly improved each of these capabilities over the past two decades, with an increased capability to disrupt or paralyze an adversary’s C4ISR system and a large arsenal of missiles with ranges capable of posing a threat to U.S. forces,” the report said, using the military term for command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance.

The PLA also is working to improve the quality of its soldiers and counter with new U.S. strike capabilities and Washington’s closer security ties with allies, the report said.

Despite numerous indicators in the report that China is preparing for war with the U.S., the report concluded Beijing does not believe that an armed clash is imminent.

“There is ample evidence that China’s armed forces are enhancing their general military preparedness, but little evidence they are mobilizing for an imminent conflict at this time,” the report said.

American allies such as Japan, the Philippines and Australia view the Chinese military expansion as a major security threat and have increased collaboration with the U.S. However, the three allies have differing priorities and, in some cases, lack the political will to side strongly with the U.S. in confronting Chinese aggression.

A U.S.-China war could be triggered if China’s leaders use force to pursue claims in the South China Sea, East China Sea or against Taiwan. The report noted that advanced and improved PLA weapons include a large and growing arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles, air defense systems, advanced fighter jets, maritime forces and electronic warfare weapons.

For attacking U.S. military command and control, the PLA has developed directed energy weapons and anti-satellite weapons.

The U.S. military is working to increase both missile defenses and missile strike capabilities in the region, for itself and for regional partners. For example, both Japan and Australia are buying hundreds of longer-range Tomahawk land attack cruise missiles capable of hitting targets inside China.

New U.S. military concepts such as dispersing forces geographically in the region and integrating war fighting capabilities will contribute to the survivability of U.S. and allied forces, the report said.

The commission report identifies Chinese coercion and intimidation of Taiwan, which China has vowed one day to control, as a major flashpoint. Beijing is increasing military pressure on the new administration of Taiwan President Lai Ching-te, labeling his government as “separatist.”

Large military exercises around Taiwan over the past two years were “designed to suggest that Beijing’s planning for hostilities includes blockade scenarios,” the report said. Near daily PLA warplane and warship incursions around Taiwan are another indicator.

Taiwan has bolstered its defenses with U.S. assistance and internal reforms focused on developing asymmetric warfare capabilities and improved military training. But domestic factors and “China’s near-daily coercion” have made enhancing the island’s defenses a problem.

According to the report, between September 2023 and September 2024, a total of $1.26 billion in military hardware was approved for sale to Taiwan. However, many of the arms shipments have been delayed, including transfers of new F-16 fighters.

Regarding Japan, the report found that Chinese naval and coast guard ships near Japan-administered Senkaku Islands and flights near Japanese airspace in the East China Sea were “a significant escalation from previous activity,” the report said. Both Tokyo and Beijing claim sovereignty over the uninhabited Senkakus.

Chinese military aggression in the South China Sea escalated to new levels as well this year with increasingly dangerous and violent actions against the Philippines inside Manila’s exclusive economic zone.

“China’s officials continued to leverage lawfare tactics to attempt to normalize their efforts to impose their will upon other countries in the region through coercive and illegal actions, superior force, and numbers,” the report said.

The report offered some 32 recommendations to address the China security challenges, including a proposal for the  U.S. government to launch a “Manhattan Project-like” program to develop artificial intelligence technologies. Other measures call for restricting U.S. trade and investment that could assist the Chinese military and calling out unfair trade practices by China.

“We offer this report to Congress in the hope that it will be useful in helping guide policies for the U.S.-China relationship that advance American interests and values,” said Robin Cleveland, chair of the commission, and Reva Price, the vice chair, in an opening statement of the report.