OPINION:
President-elect Donald Trump’s convincing victory is rightly drawing parallels to President Ronald Reagan’s election in 1980. Both candidates drew in historic numbers of traditionally non-Republican voters. The “Reagan Democrats” were largely working class, and Mr. Trump has not only expanded gains among that voting bloc but has also drawn in huge numbers of minority voters — the “Trump Democrats.”
But the historical parallel isn’t complete yet. Mr. Trump, like Reagan, must consolidate and expand the new Republican coalition by delivering a policy agenda that improves his voters’ lives.
There’s no mistaking that Mr. Trump’s victory, like Reagan’s, is politically earth-shattering. Both Republicans directly attacked the liberals’ strategy, effectively guaranteeing a Democratic loss. In 1980, Democrats needed to run up their numbers with their traditionally loyal working-class voters, so Reagan tailored his appeal of economic optimism to them.
Forty-four years later, Democrats needed a massive turnout among minorities, especially Blacks and Hispanics. Instead of writing them off and letting liberals get away with their usual playbook of identity politics, Mr. Trump made a simple pitch to minority voters: I will help you climb the ladder of opportunity.
It worked. Mr. Trump won 45% of Hispanics and 54% of Hispanic men — a massive improvement over his 2016 performance of 28% and 32%, respectively. Among Asians, his support grew by 11 percentage points, while 20% of Black men backed him, up from 13% over the past eight years.
Meanwhile, Mr. Trump’s message of opportunity and mobility increased his working-class support. In 2016, just over 40% of households making less than $50,000 a year voted for him. On Nov. 5, nearly half did.
For Democrats, these numbers are terrifying. Not only did they spell defeat for Vice President Kamala Harris, but if Republicans maintain this level of support, it’s hard to see a viable path for Democrats to win national elections in the near term. Mr. Trump is now more popular in Chicago than the city’s extremely liberal mayor. Democrats firmly believed that appealing to identity politics would never allow something like that to happen, but they’ve been proved wrong, paving the way for years in the wilderness.
But voters are fickle, and now that the election is over, they’ll expect to be rewarded for siding with Republicans. Reagan Democrats certainly benefited from the 40th president’s conservative agenda of tax cuts and deregulation. The Trump Democrats want something similar: namely, a return to the boom years of 2016-19, when income soared and unemployment hit record lows, largely benefiting minorities the most.
Mr. Trump knows it, which is why he has promised policies to lift up the least fortunate. The list includes many excellent ideas, such as extending his 2017 tax overhaul. But he also backs ending taxes on tipped wages and overtime pay, as well as tariffs.
Conservatives have rightly pointed out that these policies could distort the economy and hold back growth, but we also need to recognize that the trend is in the right direction. When Mr. Trump calls for tax exemptions, he’s circling the principle that Americans should keep more of their own money. When he demands tariffs on countries that protect their own goods, he’s pointing out that free trade means other countries have to lower barriers, too.
That is unquestionably the right impulse. But if Mr. Trump’s policies don’t result in broad economic growth, the 2024 Trump Democrats may revert to their old voting habits by 2026.
The conservative challenge over the next four years is to direct Mr. Trump’s conservative impulses toward conservative policies that will boost wages and the economy — the key to keeping the new Republican coalition together. Instead of the self-defeating strategy of haranguing him, as many of the movement’s leading lights have done, we should speak to Mr. Trump in the language he knows best: his self-interest.
If he wants economy-minded minority and working-class voters to stay loyal to him, he should cut taxes even more. If he wants to bring back manufacturing, he should go all in on deregulation to the point of eliminating entire federal agencies, if not in law, then in reality, by firing their staff. There may be limited times when tax carve-outs and tariffs make sense, but the long-term path to broadly shared economic growth is giving Americans real freedom and equal treatment.
The Republican Party is in Mr. Trump’s debt for bringing in a new and diverse generation of voters. Now, he has a chance to not only keep the Trump Democrats but expand his appeal to even more working-class and minority Americans. With the right policies, Donald Trump could be even more effective than Ronald Reagan.
• John Tillman is CEO of the American Culture Project.
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