Seoul, Tokyo nervously gear up for second Trump administration

SEOUL, South Korea — Tokyo and Seoul are bracing for the advent of the second Trump administration by reviewing alliance issues and defense spending, mulling economic risks and even fretting over their national leaders’ golf handicaps.

Political messaging, media editorials and coffee shop chatter in both capitals reveal reasons for these concerns, based on President Trump’s 2017-2021 term in office and recent election pledges.

Japan and South Korea are U.S. treaty allies in a key, unsettled region and industrial powerhouses. The United States is their leading export buyer.

Both are vital players in semiconductors — Japan in upstream materials provision and South Korea in downstream fabrication. Chip trade with China became contentious during Mr. Trump’s first administration.

Seoul and Tokyo provide the first two lines of the Pentagon’s network of regional allies while hosting forward-deployed U.S. troops stationed on the doorsteps of China, North Korea and Russia.

Both were shaken during the first Trump administration when the iconoclastic president questioned the value and return on investment of the military presence in Asia and demanded higher financial payments for their U.S. garrisons.

Mr. Trump’s “America First” mantra and campaign promises of widespread tariffs on allies and adversaries have put the two export-based economies on notice.

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba are under pressure to placate Mr. Trump. On paper, they appear well-positioned to do so.

Both leaders are conservatives with solid security stances as the U.S. looks primed to re-pivot toward Asia. Mr. Trump has vowed to swiftly halt the Russia-Ukraine war. He has appointed former Rep. John Ratcliffe as CIA director and nominated Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida as secretary of state. Both are outspoken China hawks.

Still, clear sailing is not guaranteed. Mr. Trump has claimed a solid mandate to govern with Republicans who will be in charge of the White House and Congress. Mr. Ishiba and Mr. Yoon, on the other hand, are unpopular at home and govern without clear parliamentary majorities.

Mr. Ishiba is heading the first minority Tokyo government in three decades after losing his party’s influential position in a snap election last month. Mr. Yoon’s approval ratings have plunged to a record low of 17%. These weaknesses raise red flags and may cause trouble with the Trump administration.

“Trump prefers to deal with strong leaders such as Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whether they lead democracies or autocracies,” the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals said in a Nov. 11 column.

Japanese jitters

Japanese leaders, by tradition, try to be among the first in line to cultivate relations with a new U.S. president, and this time was no exception.

“I felt our conversation was, in a nutshell, outstandingly friendly,” Mr. Ishiba said after his postelection call with Mr. Trump, the prime minister’s office reported. “My impression is that Mr. Trump is someone with whom I can speak candidly from now, with no holds barred and no need to mince words.”

Tokyo media fretted that the call lasted just five minutes, “much shorter that those with other world leaders,” according to The Japan Times.

Mr. Ishiba said he and Mr. Trump agreed to meet “at the earliest possible time.” That meeting may cover some uncomfortable subjects.

The former defense minister advocates a strong Japanese military and has vowed to secure funding to elevate Japan’s defense spending to the NATO standard of 2% of gross domestic product.

Mr. Trump will likely welcome those pledges, particularly after Japan committed to purchase some 400 U.S.-made Tomahawk cruise missiles for $2.35 billion, according to the U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency.

Mr. Ishiba has floated the idea of an “Asian NATO,” which contradicts Mr. Trump’s misgivings about NATO and the return for the U.S. on its security alliance in Europe.

Mr. Ishiba also hopes to negotiate more equal terms for the agreement covering the presence of the largest contingent of American troops on foreign soil.

Another hot-button issue is Nippon Steel’s stalled acquisition of troubled U.S. Steel, once a powerhouse of American industry and one of the largest corporations in the world. The $15 billion deal was approved by U.S. Steel shareholders in April and widely supported by pundits and local politicians. Still, it was opposed by unions and stymied by the Biden administration on economic security grounds.

That decision raised eyebrows in Japan, which considers itself a solid U.S. ally.

Nippon Steel plans to complete the acquisition by the end of the year.

Mr. Trump has said he opposes the buyout, which is pending U.S. review. Despite the ominous signals from Washington, Nippon Steel says it is determined to proceed with the deal.

If the deal founders “without a legitimate reason or proper procedures,” CEO Eiji Hashimoto said, “we would consider taking legal action against the U.S. government.”

With Mr. Trump sensitive to foreign trade deficits, Japan looks vulnerable.

The U.S. overtook China as Japan’s leading export destination for the first time in four years in 2023. Japan’s annual trade surplus with the U.S. is $133 billion, a 40% increase from Mr. Trump’s first term, the business publication The Nikkei reported.

One route to Mr. Trump’s heart may be golf. As the first foreign leader to fly to the U.S. to congratulate Mr. Trump after his surprise electoral victory eight years ago, Japanese Premier Shinzo Abe presented Mr. Trump with a gold-plated club and initiated a chummy, first-name relationship. Mr. Ishiba, however, has reportedly not played the game in decades.

Korean concerns

Mr. Yoon gave up golf, which is locally associated with elitism, power-broking and sleaze, eight years ago but has taken up the game again, the presidential office revealed shortly after Mr. Trump’s victory was confirmed.

“People close to [Mr. Trump]” informed Mr. Yoon that the two “will have good chemistry,” the president told a postelection press conference, but Mr. Trump called South Korea “a free rider” during his campaign. South Koreans recall Mr. Trump’s demands during his first term that Seoul pay the U.S. more for the security umbrella American forces and weapons provide.

Mr. Yoon has reason to be wary.

The conservative South Korean president has shown no interest in negotiating with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Mr. Trump smashed decades of diplomatic precedent by meeting with and striking up a personal relationship with Mr. Kim in three meetings starting in 2018.

Pyongyang has sent munitions, troops and, most recently, long-range, self-propelled howitzers to support Russia’s war on Ukraine. Seoul has criticized the move but has not announced any measures to counter North Korea’s provocations.

A diplomatic source said Seoul is seeking to sound out Mr. Trump.

Mr. Trump’s pledge to drop tariffs on all imports leaves trade-dependent South Korea dangerously exposed. In 2023, the USA overtook China as the largest single buyer of South Korean exports, reversing a 20-year trend. According to official data, South Korea had a record trade surplus with the U.S. of $44 billion.

South Koreans also recall Mr. Trump’s demand to renegotiate a 2007 bilateral free trade deal that he said was unequal. The tweaked deal entered force in 2019.

Seoul is preparing key messaging.

On Nov. 12, the Foreign Affairs Ministry posted an online brochure, “Korea Matters to the U.S.,” on X, discussing defense and economic ties.

Regarding the “blood-forged” bilateral alliance, it cites Seoul’s 2.8% of GDP national defense spending, its acquisitions of U.S. arms and a polled U.S. belief that the alliance helps keep Americans safe.

It states that Korea Inc. is the biggest single greenfield investor in the U.S., supplying Americans with 470,000 jobs in critical fields, including chips.