Christian voters decisive in scoring Donald Trump a second White House victory

Christians helped push President-elect Donald Trump across the finish line in last week’s election, though fewer voted than in 2020, according to a new analysis.

Evangelical pollster George Barna determined that Christians broke decisively for the Republican over Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, making up 72% of the electorate and giving him 56% of their vote. That gave Mr. Trump an estimated cushion of 17 million votes over Ms. Harris, who received 43% of Christian support.

By comparison, a recent survey found that about 64% of voters with “no religious faith” backed Ms. Harris.

Christians are the country’s largest religious group, accounting for about 68% of the 335 million people in the U.S., according to Gallup.

“Donald Trump, for all of his perceived and ridiculed faults, did a better job of representing hallowed Christian characteristics such as family, rule of law, limited government authority, and financial responsibility,” said Mr. Barna, head of the Cultural Research Center at Arizona Christian University.

Mr. Barna, who is an evangelical pastor, has tracked national religious trends for decades.

Although fewer Christians voted this year than in the past, he said the turnout among non-Christian and non-religious voters also declined.

Ms. Harris received 9 million fewer votes than President Biden when he won in 2020, partly due to millions of Democratic voters staying home.

Mr. Trump also made gains with Jewish, Muslim and Catholic voters. Strong shifts among Hispanics drove many Catholics to switch their allegiance from the Democratic Party to the GOP nominee this year.

An NBC News exit poll showed Mr. Trump trounced Ms. Harris among Catholics 58% to 40%. That reversed a slight advantage that Mr. Biden, who is Catholic, netted in his 2020 victory over Mr. Trump, who is a Presbyterian.

Mr. Barna estimated that Mr. Trump won Catholics by a narrower margin, 51% to 49%.

Josh Mercer, co-founder of CatholicVote.org, a pro-Trump political advocacy group, faulted Ms. Harris for snubbing Catholics at several points during her campaign. He pointed to her skipping the Alfred E. Smith Foundation Memorial Dinner, a Catholic charity event in New York City that presidential nominees from both parties traditionally attended.

“I think Catholic voters, like most Americans, have concerns about inflation and the border, and they think Kamala Harris was in lockstep with a radical left that wanted to promote transgender ideology,” Mr. Mercer said. “Let’s also not forget that Harris told NBC News that she considered abortion a ’fundamental right’ and that she would force Catholic doctors and nurses to participate in abortion.”

According to the surveys Mr. Barna conducted in 2020 and 2024, Ms. Harris may also have erred by centering her campaign on Mr. Trump — whom she repeatedly derided as unfit for office — rather than on kitchen table issues.

From 2020 to 2024, the surveys showed the importance of a candidate’s character and morals plunged from 34% to 16%, and the influence of disliking the other candidate fell from 24% to 16%.

A key issue that broke for Democrats in the 2020 election, the COVID-19 pandemic, did not come up in this year’s survey.

In contrast, economic policies grew in importance, with 21% of voters citing them as a reason for their choice in 2024. Another 38% mentioned inflation, 30% cited immigration and border control, 23% cited abortion and 16% said social issues decided their vote.

The findings track closely with other election data.

“Catholic Hispanics made the biggest move toward Trump,” said the Rev. Tom Reese, a Jesuit priest and senior analyst at Religion News Service. “White evangelicals and White Catholics were already there.”

Father Reese noted that some young people split their tickets by voting for both pro-abortion ballot measures and Mr. Trump, the preferred candidate of pro-life Catholics.

“Clearly, Harris’ pro-abortion strategy did not help her with women and young people to the degree she hoped,” he said. “Biden did better with these groups.”

Mark Tooley, president of the Institute on Religion and Democracy, a conservative Protestant watchdog, pointed to exit polling showing that 76% of White evangelicals voted for Trump in 2020 and 82% backed him this year. He said that helped balance the decline of White evangelicals from 28% of the electorate in 2020 to 22% this year.

“White evangelicals typically cite social issues like abortion,” Mr. Tooley said. “But also, evidently, the strongman persona appeals to them. Trump ostensibly will protect them.”