OPINION:
If senators exhibit political courage, the incoming U.S. Senate has a unique opportunity to cut off the spigot of funds to Ukraine and find peace for the war-torn country.
With the results of the 2024 election becoming clear, Republicans are set to control the U.S. Senate for the first time in three years. In that time, the Biden administration has provided approximately $59.1 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since Russia invaded in February 2022. Yet, the Ukrainian government has not outlined a realistic strategy to end the war.
Despite a never-ending flow of funds from Washington to Kyiv, the Ukrainian government keeps asking for more from Americans and brazenly requested that the Biden administration invite the country to join NATO, despite Ukraine being in an active war with Russia. It’s unclear what benefit continually funding a war on the other side of the globe with no end in sight has for the average American, who may be struggling to make ends meet because of the impacts of inflation.
The most immediate way the U.S. Senate can end the war in Ukraine is by electing a new leader who pledges to work with President-elect Donald Trump to end the war in Ukraine.
Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) announced that he is stepping down as Republican leader at the end of this year after conservatives voiced concern about his stance on Ukraine. As minority leader, Mr McConnell was an ardent supporter of security and foreign assistance to Ukraine and was key in approving billions of dollars worth of assistance to the country over the past two years. Three candidates have emerged to replace him: Sens. John Thune (R-SD), John Cornyn (R-TX) and Rick Scott (R-FL).
While President-elect Trump has expressed skepticism of pumping billions of dollars into Ukraine, Mr. Thune has expressed a hawkish view on Ukraine and argued earlier this year that, “if we’re not sending them American weapons, and [Russia] succeeds in Ukraine… and they — roll into a NATO country, then we’re going to be sending American sons and daughters.” Earlier this year, Mr. Thune voted to approve a whopping $95 billion aid package to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.
Mr. Cornyn spearheaded legislation to provide more aid to Ukraine with lend-lease authority. Mr. Cornyn argued that NATO allies should meet the 2% defense spending minimum. However, he also voted for the $95 billion foreign aid package in February.
On the other hand, Mr. Scott opposed the bill and fought for multiple hours on the Senate floor to prevent it from passing because of concerns that it did not secure the U.S. southern border. In 2023, he also joined over 30 senators in a letter to President Biden demanding that NATO members increase their defense spending commitments.
It’s important to remember that the majority leader plays a key role in determining which bills make it to the Senate floor and creating the Senate schedule. Just as Mr. McConnell prevented Merrick Garland’s nomination to be a Supreme Court Justice from receiving a vote, a hawkish Republican leader could unilaterally prevent the Senate from enacting steps to end the war in Ukraine.
The new Republican majority is also significant from a foreign policy standpoint because Senate committee assignments are determined based on the ratio of Republicans to Democrats in the chamber. For example, in 2021, when there was a 50/50 Senate, 50% of the members on committees were Democrats, while the remainder were Republicans. Because of the slim majority, Democrats almost always had to court the votes of Republicans to get their legislation out of committee through regular order.
Now that Republicans have a majority in the Senate, more Republicans will be on national security committees and may be able to unilaterally pass legislation out of committee without bipartisan support. This means that more Republicans will join the powerful Senate Armed Services Committee and draft the next must-pass National Defense Authorization Act.
It also means that the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, a committee tasked with approving U.S. foreign aid, treaties with foreign nations, and voting to send our brave men and women to war, will have more Republican members than at any other time in recent history. Senators who share Mr. Trump’s view that it‘s time to end the war in Ukraine should be placed on these important committees to ensure that the flow of funds ceases.
It’s also possible that if Republicans hold onto the House, Congressional Republicans may attempt to use budget reconciliation to sign into law various parts of Mr. Trump’s agenda, including his foreign policy. Once created to get the budget back on track, this lengthy and complicated process has been used by both parties to pass their agendas because only a simple majority in the Senate is needed to pass a bill created by this process.
While Republicans in 2017 used budget reconciliation to enact domestic policies in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, budget reconciliation was used during the Biden administration to provide U.S. foreign aid in response to COVID-19. Because of this precedent, Republicans may also consider using reconciliation to decrease spending for Ukraine.
The U.S. Senate has a significant opportunity to end the war in Ukraine. But doing so will require political courage and the right leadership to make it possible.
• Demri Scott Greggo is a Contributing Fellow at Defense Priorities.
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