Some in Southeast Asia see a definite upside to Trump’s return to power

BANGKOK — The election of Donald Trump for another four years in the White House has produced nervous repositioning and sleepless nights for traditional allies, international organizations and countries willing to challenge his “America First” foreign policy.

Still, Mr. Trump’s victory may relieve the jitters of leaders of three authoritarian Southeast Asian nations — Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia — caught in the influence struggle between the U.S. and China.

Mr. Trump is expected to renew a focus on security, economic promise and national interest.

“In his first term, [Mr. Trump] did not exhibit interest in the promotion of democracy or human rights,” Kantathi Suphamongkhon, a former Thai foreign minister, said in an interview. “This tendency is expected to continue.

“Governments in Southeast Asia with human rights or democracy issues will feel less or no pressure on this front,” he said.

Those leaders could expect a much less confrontational Washington response to their countries’ lack of fair elections, free speech and other civil liberties that Democratic administrations often highlight.

Asian leaders are also presumably adjusting their diplomatic behavior and style to respond to Mr. Trump’s often erratic statements and see beyond the bluster. Staying on his good side is considered a supreme diplomatic imperative.

“Under [Mr. Trump’s] strongman leadership style, a personal relationship with him has heightened value,” Mr. Kantathi said. “Leaders with skills in complimenting Trump will benefit. Charm offensive skills will have enhanced value.”

Many in the region say they welcome Mr. Trump’s more transactional approach to foreign policy, and Mr. Kantathi said a determination to work toward a trade balance with the U.S. will be seen positively.

Welcoming a trade war

Although global corporations and investor markets are concerned about Mr. Trump’s return, analysts say a Washington-Beijing trade war may benefit Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam and other rising Asian powers.

Ambitious, low-wage Southeast Asian nations hope to replace tariffed Chinese manufactured exports to the U.S., especially goods involving automobiles and electronics, if Mr. Trump levies stiff entry duties on Chinese products.

Because of frosty trade relations between Washington and Beijing during Mr. Trump’s first term, companies relocated offices and businesses from China to Southeast Asia to avoid financial barriers, including tariffs and quotas on “made in China” goods and services.

“Cambodia could be a major winner if the U.S. President-elect Donald Trump goes through with his threat to drastically hike tariffs on Chinese goods,” Phnom Penh-based Khmer Times online reported this week. “U.S. companies are already planning to shift production to [Cambodia] from China as they look for alternative sources of goods.”

Cambodia Chamber of Commerce Vice President Lim Heng told the newspaper, “This threat will push Chinese companies to invest more in Cambodia. Chinese companies and regional companies will come here and invest in Cambodia and export to the U.S., Europe and other places.”

Cambodian exports of clothing, electrical goods, raw materials and travel accessories could benefit from high U.S. tariffs against China.

Many acknowledge they dread the prospect of a push-comes-to-shove choice between exclusively backing the U.S. or China.

“The Thai government must also be careful to not be perceived as having an unfairly close alliance with China, or be a hub for Chinese investors, in a way that could undermine the image of Thai exports,” a Bangkok Post editorial warned on Friday.

“We want to be loved by China. We want to be loved by America,” Thai Commerce Minister Pichai Naripthaphan said in September.

Some are betting that a Trump administration grappling with wars and hostilities worldwide will need low-maintenance, high-value friends and allies.

Southeast Asia “now has more bargaining power than before and sees that the United States will interfere in the conflict in the South China Sea. Therefore, America’s position is not as strong as before,” Wanwichit Boonprong, a political science lecturer at Rangsit University, said in an interview.

China appears to have gained influence in the four years Mr. Trump was out of power.

Mr. Trump “should know that in recent years, Chinese capital has had a huge influence in [Southeast Asian] countries, both legally and illegally, and many countries are happy to accept it because of their geopolitical location that is very close to China, coupled with the fact that many countries have Chinese descent,” Mr. Wanwichit said. “In terms of culture or tradition, it is easy to accept being Chinese.”

Economic realities are rewriting the continent’s political landscape. Once hostile to Indonesia for its ties to the U.S. and its history of anti-communist purges and extrajudicial killings, China is implementing a $2 billion government-backed loan to construct a Jakarta-Bandung high-speed rail project linking the two Indonesian cities.

Mr. Trump “should understand that because of the rise of China in the [Southeast Asian] region, and what appears to be Washington’s diminished interest there, several Asian countries have increasingly hedged or sought to create balance between China and the U.S. This includes Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia,” Paul Chambers, a Southeast Asian security affairs specialist at Naresuan University, said in an interview.

Asian countries that perceive China as unfriendly may welcome Mr. Trump’s return to the presidency.

“Given Trump’s demonstrated anti-China policy in his first term, his return to office in 2024 points to more economic and security benefits for countries feeling bullied by China in Asia — namely Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Laos, Japan and South Korea,” Mr. Chambers said.

“Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia are the front-line states in the eyes of the United States as a result of China’s aggressive behavior in the South China Sea,” Kasit Piromya, another former Thai foreign minister, said in an interview.

Some fear China will be reluctant to shutter its factories overproducing relatively cheap items, even in the face of U.S. tariffs, leading to fears that the goods will seek other markets.

If so, the resulting unsold Chinese goods could be pushed south and dumped in Thailand, financially challenging Thai-owned businesses and industries already competing with China’s exported inexpensive goods.

Tight Thai ties

Washington and Bangkok have had close diplomatic, economic and military relations, which are expected to continue under Mr. Trump.

“If Trump offers positive inducements to the Thai military, relations will improve,” Mr. Chambers said.

Thai officials are trying to lay the groundwork to minimize the disruptions of the abrupt shift in power and policy in Washington.

“Regardless of who becomes the next U.S. president, our mutual goals and cooperation remain steadfast,” Thai Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa said on Nov. 6. “Our relationship with the U.S. is robust, consistent and long-standing.”

Thailand, a non-NATO U.S. treaty ally, has long tried to balance its relations with the U.S. and China. Each superpower offers unique benefits.

Mr. Trump’s return to the White House coincides with the Pentagon’s hopes to sell Lockheed Martin’s F-16 warplanes to Thailand against solid competition from Sweden’s Saab-made Gripen E/F fighter aircraft. Boeing is building eight AH-6 “Little Bird” combat attack helicopters for the Royal Thai Army and will train Thai pilots at the U.S. Army Yuma Proving Ground at Mesa, Arizona.

If Mr. Trump takes a hard line against Beijing and its friends, Cambodia could face pressure over their close financial relations. Major Chinese investors have sought opportunities in the country’s real estate, natural resources, tourism and other sectors.

Washington’s criticism of Phnom Penh’s domestic political issues and weak human rights has strained relations between the U.S. and Cambodia. Cambodia regards it as U.S. interference.

The U.S. also suspects Cambodia of allowing China to expand Ream Naval Base, on Cambodia’s southern coast along the Gulf of Thailand, into a strategic military base. Phnom Penh denies it.

Even in Phnom Penh, officials have moved quickly to get on the good side of the next U.S. administration.

Cambodian Senate President and former Prime Minister Hun Sen optimistically posted on his Facebook account: “Before the election, Donald Trump sent a message to the American people and around the world about loving peace, war-hating, [and] so-called pacifism.

“Trump’s victory shows that Americans love peace rather than having an outright war in Ukraine and Israel,” he added.