New House ratings in key races shift in favor of Democrats

Another election rater has shifted more House races to favor Democrats just ahead of Election Day.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report changed the rating of eight House races on Friday, with all but two shifting in favor of Democratic incumbents and challengers. 

The changes comes on the heels of Inside Elections’ reranking of 15 House races on Thursday, which similarly gave Democrats an edge over Republicans.

Cook’s ratings shift, which is the final change for House race ratings this cycle, comes as Republicans are trying to hold their slim, three-seat majority. Democrats need to win only four seats to control the lower chamber, and Cook predicted that Democrats could win as many as 10 seats, while Republicans could gain up to five. 

Two vulnerable Republican incumbents, Reps. Don Bacon of Nebraska and Anthony D’Esposito of New York, saw their races slide from “toss-up” to “lean Democrat.” The duo join Rep. Brandon Williams, New York Republican, in that category. 

In New York’s 4th District, Mr. D’Esposito is in a tight rematch against Democrat Laura Gillen. In 2022, Mr. D’Esposito defeated her by less than 10,000 votes in one of the country’s most Democratic areas with a Republican representative. 

Inside Elections, another of the big three election raters, shifted Mr. D’Esposito’s race from “toss-up” to “tilt Democratic” on Thursday. 

The lawmaker has recently come under criticism after a New York Times report that the congressman hired his mistress and his fiancee’s daughter to work in his district office, a potential violation of House ethics rules. Mr. D’Esposito has not denied the allegations.

Mr. Bacon is running against Democratic candidate Tony Vargas, who has the lead in several recent polls, in Nebraska’s 2nd District. Mr. Bacon’s district has become a focal point for Democrats, who believe Vice President Kamala Harris can beat former President Donald Trump there, securing an electoral vote and possible victory for Mr. Vargas. 

Colorado’s open 3rd District seat, which is currently represented by Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert, shifted from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.” Ms. Boebert opted to run in the state’s 4th District after former Rep. Ken Buck retired earlier this year. 

The move meant that a rematch with Democratic candidate Adam Frisch, who lost to her in the 3rd District in 2022 by less than 1,000 votes, was put on ice. Mr. Frisch is now running against Republican Jeff Hurd, an attorney. 

Democratic Reps. Angie Craig of Minnesota and Andrea Salinas of Oregon got boosts in their reelection bids with the latest ratings shift, with both of their races creeping from “lean Democrat” to “likely Democrat.” 

After Rep. Annie Kuster, New Hampshire Democrat, announced she would not seek another term, Republicans believed they had a rare opportunity to win a seat in the Granite State. 

But the latest ratings change from “likely Democrat” to “solid Democrat” in the race for Ms. Kuster’s open seat in the state’s 2nd District between Democrat Maggie Goodlander and Republican Lily Tang Williams may have slammed shut that window of opportunity. 

Republicans did get a glimmer of hope in two open seats in Michigan and Maryland, however. 

Michigan’s 7th District, which was opened up after Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin launched her bid for the Senate, slid from “toss-up” to “lean Republican.” 

Republican Tom Barrett, an Army veteran who lost to Ms. Slotkin by 5 points in 2022, is running against Democrat Curtis Hertel, who served in the state Senate and as Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s director of legislative affairs.

And in Maryland’s 6th District, Republicans gained some ground with the contest to replace retiring Democratic Rep. David Trone between Democrat April McClain-Delaney and Republican Neal Parrott moving from “likely Democrat” to “lean Democrat.”