OPINION:
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The proliferation of nuclear weapons and Iran’s recent attack on Israel are two reasons we should upgrade our missile defense capabilities and ensure that Iran never gets nuclear weapons.
On April 14, Iran launched more than 300 ballistic missiles and drones at Israel, in what could have been the beginning of a war in the Middle East. Fortunately, over 99% of the missiles and drones were intercepted. Israel’s effective multilayered missile defense system, made up of the Arrow (to intercept long-range ballistic missiles), David’s Sling (to intercept medium-range ballistic missiles), Patriot (to intercept Scud missiles and shoot down aircraft and drones), and the Iron Dome (to shoot down short-range rockets) prevented Iran from inflicting massive casualties and destruction on Israel. The United States and the United Kingdom also helped Israel shoot down Iranian drones over Jordan, Iraq and Syria.
On April 19, Israel launched several mini-drones at the Iranian city of Isfahan, causing minimal damage. Israel’s decision to cautiously respond to the Iranian attack and Iran’s muted response to Israel’s attack on Isfahan appeared to be a concerted effort to avert all-out war.
Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine from the beginning of his invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un recently announced that North Korea will make more nuclear weapons designed to fit on a variety of delivery systems developed to overwhelm South Korean missile defense systems. And Iranian leader Ali Khamenei has ensured that Iran, currently enriching uranium at 60%, remains a threshold nuclear weapons state that can quickly enrich uranium at the 90% weapons-grade level.
If North Korea retains and expands its nuclear arsenal, as it is doing now, hopes for the denuclearization of North Korea remain unrealistic. If Iran should acquire nuclear weapons, as it was actively pursuing until 2003, then it is likely we will have a nuclear arms race in East Asia and the Middle East.
In the 1970s, South Korea was pursuing a secret nuclear weapons program. It is possible that Seoul will do it again — this time overtly — if North Korea continues to build more nuclear weapons and ballistic and cruise missiles to deliver them while embracing Russia and supporting Mr. Putin’s war in Ukraine.
Recent polling in South Korea had over 70% of the respondents saying South Korea would need its own nuclear weapons, despite the United States’ extended nuclear deterrent commitments, if North Korea retains its nuclear weapons. It is also likely that Japan, Taiwan and others in East Asia will also decide to pursue indigenous nuclear weapons programs if North Korea retains its nuclear weapons.
Indeed, an Iran with nuclear weapons would incite Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey to pursue their own nuclear weapons programs.
China is exponentially increasing its nuclear arsenal. Under President Xi Jinping, China is reportedly planning to increase its nuclear arsenal from about 200 warheads to 1,000 warheads by 2030 for military and geopolitical leverage. Satellite imagery reveals that China is building two nuclear intercontinental ballistic missile silo fields in Gansu province for 120 silos and in eastern Xinjiang for 110 silos.
If all these silos are loaded with single-warhead missiles, then the number of warheads on Chinese ICBMs could increase from about 185 warheads today to as many as 415 warheads. If they are loaded with the new multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRVed) DF-41 ICBMs, then these ICBMs could potentially carry more than 875 warheads when these two missile silo fields are operational.
This significant increase in nuclear weapons and doctrinal shift from maintaining a “minimal” nuclear deterrent to a “sizable” nuclear deterrent is meaningful. Unfortunately, however, China refuses to have a dialogue with U.S. counterparts regarding our respective nuclear programs.
Given the wars in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip, Iran’s support of the terrorist group Hamas and its missile attack on Israel, tension in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, China’s exponential increase in its nuclear arsenal, and North Korea’s nuclear and missile buildup, it should be obvious that more must be done to ensure that nuclear weapons are not used, intentionally or accidentally. Any use of nuclear weapons would be catastrophic.
In 1983, President Ronald Reagan proposed a missile defense Strategic Defense Initiative to protect the U.S. from a nuclear attack from the Soviet Union. In December 2001, President George W. Bush announced that the U.S. would withdraw from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, stating that the treaty was hindering the U.S. from protecting itself against terrorists and rogue states.
The recent bipartisan Strategic Posture Commission recommended that the United States “develop and field homeland IAMD (Integrated Air and Missile Defense) that can deter and defeat coercive attacks by Russia and China.”
Defending against peer-coercive nuclear threats and rogue nuclear threats is imperative for this and future administrations. Clearly, in addition to a robust nuclear deterrent, we need to invest more in our missile defense capabilities to protect the homeland and our allies and partners if diplomacy and deterrence fail.
• Joseph R. DeTrani served as special envoy for the Six-Party Talks with North Korea from 2003 to 2006 and as director of the National Counterproliferation Center. The views expressed here are the author’s and not those of any government agency or department.
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