OPINION:
The Environmental Protection Agency recently announced new regulations governing tailpipe emissions for cars, SUVs and pickup trucks. The emissions cuts are so significant that automakers will be able to satisfy these rules only by selling more electric vehicles. By 2032, two-thirds of the new cars sold in the U.S. will be “zero-emissions vehicles” — that is, all-electric vehicles.
Not only will this regulation impose costly burdens on carmakers, consumers and utilities, but these hardships will also not actually result in emissions reductions that could be meaningful in combating climate change. Instead, the regulation will enrich the Chinese companies that control the lithium supply chain and will put the U.S. transportation sector at the mercy of the Chinese regime.
According to current theories of climate change, greenhouse gas, or GHG, emissions dissipate globally and affect climate equally. Therefore, what matters in potentially mitigating the impacts of climate change is reducing the total amount of greenhouse gases emitted globally. According to the EPA, the U.S. transportation sector accounts for 29% of the country’s total GHG emissions (6,341.2 million metric tons in 2022). Of that, light-duty vehicles account for 58% of the transportation sector’s emissions, or 1,066.6 million metric tons of GHG emissions.
According to a study by the University of Michigan, replacing electric sedans, SUVs and pickup trucks with electric versions will decrease the cradle-to-grave emissions by about 64%. Based on these numbers, if every light vehicle in the United States were replaced with its electric equivalent, the nation’s GHG emissions would decline by a mere 682.61 million metric tons.
Although this seems like a large number, it is insignificant on a global scale. To put this in perspective, China’s coal-fired power plants emitted 5,560 million metric tons of carbon dioxide in 2023. In other words, it takes only 45 days for China’s coal-fired power plants to emit as much carbon dioxide as the U.S. would save by switching all light-duty vehicles to electric versions.
The EPA’s new rule will not even reduce U.S. GHG emissions by nearly 682.61 million metric tons because it affects only new vehicles sold, not vehicles already on the road or used-car sales. When it is fully implemented in 2032, the regulation will likely eliminate less than 1% of global emissions.
As U.S. automakers struggle to comply with this regulation by implementing costly changes to their production lines, China will reap the economic benefits. EVs use lithium-ion batteries to store electricity, and Chinese companies supply 80% of the world’s battery cells and make up nearly 60% of the EV battery market. Even some companies that produce EV batteries in the United States use lithium-ion cell components produced by Chinese manufacturers. The United States is taking steps to cultivate lithium mining and lithium battery construction in the United States, but these efforts are in their infancy.
The U.S. has one operational lithium mine that produces only 5,000 tons of lithium annually. The Biden administration recently approved a $2.26 billion loan to construct a second lithium mine, but even with this funding, the mine isn’t expected to reach full operational capacity until 2028.
To meet the timeline laid out in the EPA regulation, automakers must rely on China for nearly all of the lithium battery cells they need to produce EVs. Not only will this dependence enrich Chinese companies, but from a strategic standpoint, this new rule will put the U.S. transportation sector at China’s mercy. At any point, the Chinese regime could restrict exports of lithium, refined lithium or lithium-ion batteries to the United States. The consequences would cripple the auto industry and threaten our national security.
The Biden administration will undoubtedly portray the EPA’s new tailpipe emissions regulation as a “win” for its environmental agenda. Still, the reality is that the reductions in net emissions are globally insignificant. At the same time, it sends more U.S. dollars to Chinese companies and gives China even more leverage over America’s economy and national security. Surely there are better ways to help the environment that don’t involve such dangerous trade-offs.
• Ellen Wald is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center and the president of Transversal Consulting, a global energy and geopolitics consultancy. She is the author of “Saudi, Inc.,” a history of Saudi Aramco and how the Saudi royal family controls this multitrillion-dollar enterprise.
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