Former President Donald Trump’s guilty verdict in the New York hush money case is poised to energize his loyal base and motivate Republicans and some independents in key swing states to turn out in big numbers to support him in the presidential election.
Mr. Trump, speaking to reporters in Manhattan after he was found guilty on all 34 felony counts, repeated his assertion that the entire case was rigged and a political weapon wielded by President Biden to defeat him in November.
“This was a rigged, disgraceful trial,” Mr. Trump said. “The real verdict is going to be Nov. 5 by the people, and they know what happened here. Everyone knows what happened here.”
Polling showed that the vast majority of people who planned to vote for Mr. Trump would not change their minds regardless of a conviction. Most Republicans, according to polls, say a guilty verdict makes it even more likely that they will show up and vote for Mr. Trump, which could help the former president bolster turnout in critical battleground states that will likely decide the election with tight margins.
Mr. Trump’s fundraising website crashed temporarily after the verdict.
“I think people are rallying around Trump. They’ve made him a victim and martyr, which I didn’t think was possible,” Trump pollster Jim McLaughlin said.
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Although Mr. Trump’s base will likely be energized, he could see an additional boost in support from independents, a critical voting bloc that could tip the election to either Mr. Trump or Mr. Biden.
In a survey conducted last month by Emerson College Polling and The Hill, Mr. Trump led Mr. Biden in the seven swing states of Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Wisconsin.
Mr. Trump was winning independents in five of the swing states. In all seven swing states, most independent voters said a guilty verdict would either have no impact on their choice or make it more likely they would vote for Mr. Trump.
In Pennsylvania, Arizona and North Carolina, three-quarters of independents said they were either more likely to vote for Mr. Trump if he was found guilty or the verdict would have no impact.
In Michigan, where Mr. Trump is ahead of Mr. Biden in polling averages by less than 1 percentage point, one analyst predicted a guilty verdict would electrify the former president’s core supporters.
“I think it will energize his base,” Lansing-based pollster Steve Mitchell said. “What it has the potential to do is increase voter turnout among base Republicans and Trump voters.”
A boost in turnout for Mr. Trump could sink Mr. Biden’s chances of winning Michigan, considered a swing state that the president must win to secure a second term.
Mr. Mitchell’s polling has shown a dearth of enthusiasm for Mr. Biden among Democratic voters in Michigan compared with those backing Mr. Trump.
“There is a 22% gap in enthusiasm between Biden voters and Trump voters,” Mr. Mitchell said. “That portends a real problem for Biden.”
Now that Mr. Trump has been found guilty in a trial that many Republican voters view as unfair, Mr. Mitchell said, “People who haven’t come out in 30 years will be coming out to vote.”
Some Democrats may even turn out to vote for Mr. Trump in response to the verdict. Polls show most voters view the trial as unfair.
“I think there are a lot of Democrats across the country that don’t agree with this and are going to be voting for Donald Trump,” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, Louisiana Republican, predicted Thursday.
Mr. Biden, who reportedly planned a White House address about the verdict, let his campaign speak for him instead.
The Biden team hopes the felony conviction turns off enough swing state voters to help the president repeat his near sweep of the battleground states in 2020.
Biden-Harris campaign communications director Michael Tyler said the verdict underscores the need to vote against Mr. Trump, the presumptive Republican Party nominee.
“Donald Trump has always mistakenly believed he would never face consequences for breaking the law for his own personal gain,” Mr. Tyler said. “But today’s verdict does not change the fact that the American people face a simple reality. There is still only one way to keep Donald Trump out of the Oval Office: at the ballot box. Convicted felon or not, Trump will be the Republican nominee for president.”
The guilty verdict also could cost Mr. Trump some of his newly built support among independents.
In the Emerson poll, more than 30% of independent voters in Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin said they would be less likely to vote for Mr. Trump after a guilty verdict.
All four states voted for Mr. Biden in 2020 by narrow margins.
Those voters could abandon Mr. Trump for Mr. Biden, but some polls suggest they will not.
In a national voter poll taken in March, Suffolk University found among independent voters who planned to vote for Trump, 77% would still vote for him regardless of a conviction. Among those who would not, none would switch their vote to Mr. Biden.
Mr. Trump did not take questions from reporters. His sentencing is scheduled for July 11, just ahead of the Republican National Convention, where he will be officially anointed the party’s presidential nominee.
“We’ll keep fighting. We’ll fight till the end, and we’ll win because our country has gone to hell. We don’t have the same country anymore. We have a divided mess,” Mr. Trump said in a brief statement outside the courtroom.
In a fundraising email sent shortly after the verdict, Mr. Trump depicted himself as a presidential candidate persecuted by his political opponent and sought “immediate pushback” from supporters.
“I DID NOTHING WRONG! They’ve raided my home, arrested me, took my mugshot, AND NOW THEY’VE JUST CONVICTED ME!”
• Susan Ferrechio can be reached at sferrechio@washingtontimes.com.
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