OPINION:
As we careen into yet another election cycle, it is essential to remember that whatever you may have heard, this is not the most important election in the history of the republic or the planet.
Most elections are punctuation points in historical trends. What happens between the elections — social, cultural and technological changes — is almost always more important than which set of tribunes we select to watch over the people.
I mention this because our friends at the EU-US Forum — a nonprofit recently launched to highlight the harmful policies of the European Union — sponsored some opinion research in early May in France, Germany, Italy, Portugal and the Netherlands. The responses were interesting, largely because they are very similar to American sentiments about how the elites manage the various nations. That suggests the ongoing break between the citizens and their rulers is widespread and durable.
For example, in four nations, the economy and cost of living were identified as the most important issues facing the country in question. In the fifth country — the Netherlands — immigration was identified as the most important issue. It is important to note, however, that about three-quarters of respondents in each nation want harsher border controls to address illegal immigration.
About half of the citizens in each country — France (59%), Portugal (59%), Italy (54%), Germany (49%) and the Netherlands (48%) — believe their financial situation has gotten worse in the past year.
Does any of that sound familiar? It should. The economy and immigration have been the top two issues in the American campaign for six months and are likely to remain so until the election. Americans are acutely aware that when you factor in inflation, their own income has fallen by about 10% over the past three years.
Not surprisingly, European voters have decided — like their counterparts in the U.S. — that strong medicine is needed. In France, more than a quarter of respondents indicated they planned to vote for the National Rally. Almost 4 in 10 respondents in Germany indicated that they intend to vote for the Christian Democratic Union and Alternative for Germany parties.
These parties and their cognates in the Brothers of Italy and the Party for Freedom in the Netherlands are routinely identified — just like former President Donald Trump’s followers — as the “far right.” This raises the question: If you are picking up 40% or more of the vote, how far from the center can you be?
The story is the same everywhere: “Mainstream” parties keep trying to sell the last generation’s ideas using salesmen such as Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah and then seem surprised when no one wants to buy them.
As for the voters, they are clear about what they want and don’t want. In France, President Emmanuel Macron and Prime Minister Gabriel Attal face high disapproval rates of 62% and 51%, respectively. In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s disapproval is above 60%. In Canada, about 60% disapprove of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. President Biden’s disapproval is north of 55% here in the States.
The bottom line is that the elites, who until recently controlled all of the political parties — along with the media — in Europe and the United States, are starting to lose their grip. Mr. Trump, who has played an essential role in reconfiguring American politics generally and the Republican Party specifically, may very well be a vessel for an already mature revolutionary fervor at this point.
That’s bad news for the Democrats and their fellow travelers in Europe. Once followers conclude that their leaders are mostly blind guides, there’s no going back to pretending that everything is OK. Unless we experience something material that interrupts the current trajectory — a war, a depression — from now into the near future, elections are going to be contests in which increasingly dyspeptic and unruly masses try to remove the embarrassingly ineffective elites.
• Michael McKenna is a contributing editor at The Washington Times and a co-host of the podcast “The Unregulated.”
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