OPINION:
A version of this story appeared in the daily Threat Status newsletter from The Washington Times. Click here to receive Threat Status delivered directly to your inbox each weekday.
The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and the Iranian foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, in a helicopter crash has been met with wildly different reactions in that country. Dissidents are reportedly celebrating with fireworks while the ayatollahs are left to decide on successors who will reinforce the theocracy’s hold on power and support its violent actions abroad.
Those divergent points of view highlight the tightrope the Iranian regime must walk now — appeasing the fundamentalist mullahs without further alienating an increasingly youthful, secular and vocal population.
I hope the Biden administration is working just as hard right now to tip the scales toward a more moderate leader who will steer the country away from funding and directing terrorist organizations such as Hezbollah, Hamas and others, and instead work toward peaceful coexistence.
I fear that we have let our guard down over Iran in the last 20 years to the extent that we no longer have skilled operatives who can provide actionable intelligence, much less influence the selection process. Even so, there is much we can do immediately to take full advantage of the regime’s precarious position. If we are thoughtful, artful and swift, we can change Iran’s dangerous, destructive trajectory.
Let’s be clear: The deaths of the president and the foreign minister aren’t likely to bring about a full-scale revolution. Nor should that be our goal. Instead, we should recognize that Iran is already on an irreversible course toward moderation that will inevitably break the fundamentalist chokehold. We simply need to help it along. That’s the difficult part.
Success in the long term will require quiet cooperation from our allies in Israel, whose intelligence apparatus in the region is far superior to our own. Mossad has maintained eyes and ears in Iran for decades, and no doubt has contacts who can influence key decision-makers. It is in Israel’s interest to help because there can never be peace in the region so long as Hamas and Hezbollah can operate under the aegis of Iran.
For the same reason, it makes sense to shift some of the U.S. focus away from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and toward Iran. This administration’s attempts to take both sides have left us with fewer friends on one and none on the other.
In parallel, we should make maximum use of social media to reach the next generation of Iranians who are pushing for change. A full 86% of Iran’s 90 million people are under age 54 — and roughly 37% are under 24. They are Iran’s future, and they are disillusioned with its leaders.
This was most evident in 2022, when Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Iranian woman, died after Iran’s morality police arrested her for wearing her hijab improperly. Months of protests followed and spread throughout the country, with men joining in the demonstrations. That is a clear signal that the hard-liners’ grip on power is growing more tenuous with every year that passes — and with every woman who earns a diploma or degree.
There are several ways to cultivate positive relationships with this younger, more diverse demographic. The simplest is to amplify their voices through social media and quietly help them circumvent the regime’s frequent internet crackdowns. Reliable information is poisonous to despots, and we have the social and technological infrastructure to spread the truth.
Another important step is to show solidarity with ordinary Iranians at the highest levels of our government. For example, the White House should officially condemn violent crackdowns on protests, publicly call for the release of political prisoners, and expressly support the rights of women and freedom of the press.
One genuine offer we should make is to assist Iran in determining the cause of the crash. That may sound odd, but there is cause and precedent. The helicopter is reported to be a U.S.-made Bell 212. International aviation agreements allow the National Transportation Safety Board to appoint a representative to the investigation if the aircraft was made in America. At the very least, it would show the Iranian people a good-faith effort to help in a time of need.
Though I’ve recommended walking softly in matters related to the Iranian people, we must maintain our resolve to use a big stick with the regime when necessary. The decision to free up $6 billion in Iranian assets to “open a dialogue and ease tensions” was a dangerous and potentially deadly mistake. Be assured that much of that money found its way into the hands of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and its terrorist proxies.
Likewise, we cannot show moral ambiguity about Hamas. That barbaric organization is solely responsible for untold numbers of dead in Israel and in the Gaza Strip. The blood is on the hands of Iranian-backed terrorists, and no American official should condemn Israel for defending its people. In my experience, an unreliable ally is as dangerous as a determined enemy.
Forty-five years ago, I watched Iran’s fragile government crumble under the weight of fundamentalist Islam. Young people in that country were hungry for change, but their energy and their enthusiasm were hijacked by Ayatollah Khomeini. In the years since, however, the people of Iran have awakened to the repression, brutality, and violence the regime embodies.
Today, we have a chance to firmly but gently guide Iran and its good people toward a brighter, more peaceful and more prosperous future. The question is whether we have the wisdom and the will. Our leaders’ actions in days ahead will provide the answer.
• Retired Air Force Maj. Gen. Richard V. Secord served for three years as the Air Force’s overall commander in Iran and another three years directing U.S. defense policy in the Near East, Africa and Southeast Asia during the Reagan administration. He first came into the national spotlight as the officer in charge of U.S. external operations through the so-called Iran-Contra affair.
Please read our comment policy before commenting.