Iranian president’s sudden death sets stage for political power struggle in Tehran

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Iran’s supreme leader moved Monday to temporarily shore up the country’s leadership after the sudden death of President Ebrahim Raisi a day earlier, while analysts said there is likely to be a behind-the-scenes struggle in Tehran to fill the unexpected power vacuum.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Islamic republic’s 85-year-old religious leader and ultimate decision-maker, appointed First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber as interim president until elections are held on June 28.

Mr. Raisi and Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian died Sunday when their Bell 212 helicopter crashed near the country’s border with Azerbaijan. Heavy fog and challenging terrain made it difficult for search teams to find the wreckage until hours after the crash.

In the U.S., the Biden administration offered its condolences but tried to walk a fine diplomatic line by highlighting the human rights abuses and alleged atrocities connected to Mr. Raisi, 63, and the Iranian government’s unapologetic support for terrorist groups such as Hamas during his time in office.

“He was responsible for the support that Iran provided terrorist networks throughout the region,” White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters.

State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said Mr. Raisi had “blood on his hands,” referring to his time as president and what the U.S. and other observers say was his role in the 1988 killings of political prisoners in Iran.

“We have been quite clear that Ebrahim Raisi was a brutal participant in the repression of the Iranian people for nearly four decades,” Mr. Miller told reporters. “Some of the worst human rights abuses occurred during his tenure as president, especially the human rights abuses against the women and girls of Iran.”

The death of Mr. Raisi comes at a crucial moment in the Middle East. Just over a month ago, Iran, for the first time, launched a direct military attack against Israel. That Iranian attack on April 13, which was mostly foiled by U.S. and Israeli missile defense systems, followed an April 1 strike on the Iranian embassy complex in Damascus, Syria, widely believed to have been carried out by Israel. The Damascus bombing killed Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi and other Iranian officials.

It’s not clear whether the next Iranian leader will seek to calm tensions with Israel or take an even more hostile approach.

During Mr. Raisi’s tenure, Iran’s “Axis of Resistance,” made up of proxy terrorist groups throughout the region, has grown more aggressive. The most notable example was the Oct. 7 attack on Israel by the Palestinian militant group Hamas, which is financially and logistically backed by Iran. The Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, meanwhile, have launched a coordinated campaign against global maritime traffic in the Red Sea. Iran-backed Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria have routinely targeted U.S. troops in the region.

It’s not clear whether the change in leadership in Iran could affect the country’s broader foreign policy or whether the next president could take a different tack with respect to the country’s proxy outfits and their aggressive posture toward the U.S. and Israel.

What is clear, specialists say, is that Mr. Raisi’s death has thrust the nation into a state of uncertainty. Mr. Raisi was considered a protege of the supreme leader and was widely considered to be on the shortlist to eventually succeed him. His death could spark a political power struggle, specialists said.

“It’s going to be significant domestically in terms of the internal balance of power of the regime,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based think tank.

Mr. Raisi’s success in government was more a result of his zeal and fanatical loyalty to the regime than competence, Mr. Ben Taleblu said.

“This loyalty is what had him on the alleged shortlist to succeed Iran’s octogenarian supreme leader,” he said. “With his passing, the shortlist has gotten a lot shorter.”

The struggle for a balance of power in Tehran is unlikely to be particularly smooth or problem-free, Mr. Ben Taleblu said.

“It doesn’t matter if there’s a process because the norm [in Iran] is to manhandle the process,” he wrote. “They have been making this up as they go along. It’s really just a third-world kleptocracy with a religious veneer.”

Although Mr. Raisi’s death raises the prospect of renewed jockeying for the top position in Iran, it doesn’t necessarily guarantee the rise of Mojtaba Khamenei, the supreme leader’s son and the person seen as Mr. Raisi’s chief rival.

“There is deep resistance to the inheritance of power in Iran, and the broader clerical establishment still prides itself on having a deep meritocratic streak, which Mojtaba’s nepotistic rise would undermine even more than Raisi’s would have,” Jon B. Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, wrote in an analysis Monday.

Analysts say the country’s foreign policy, including efforts to court China and Russia, will likely remain unchanged, though the selection of the next foreign minister will be important. Mr. Amirabdollahian was an Arabic speaker who spent several years cultivating relationships among Iran’s neighbors and had earned some trust for his efforts, Mr. Alterman said.

“Amid the uncertainty, it will take some time to rebuild those ties,” he wrote.

The next supreme leader of Iran will also have to cultivate relationships with the country’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which has played a leading role in nearly every aspect of Iranian politics and society.

“It’s arguably the most important institution in the country,” Mr. Ben Taleblu said. “They’re already playing a key pivotal role. Anyone that will matter will have to have some ties to them.”